Game 1: In Which Gonzaga Unleashes Yet Another 14-Year Old to Conquer Us All

It is said in legend that when one Zag Hobbit leaves the institution to make its mark on the world, another must take its place. Gonzaga’s newest little Ewok, Kevin Pangos, introduced himself to the world last night in the form of nine three pointers and leaving half of Cougar Nation wondering if he took a giant stack of cash home to his wife, Rosie Perez, and the other half of Cougar Nation to wonder why I used a Lord of the Rings, Star Wars and White Men Can’t Jump reference all in the same sentence.

Perimeter Defense was off and on last night, but it really didn’t matter. It was a Zag world and we were all fortunate to be witnesses to it last night. For levity’s sake, I charted the nine Pangos death balls to see what happened, and for comedy’s sake: Pangos Death Balls is the name of my Ronny James Dio tribute band.

Death Ball 1: Lapse by Reggie. Left Pangos at the top of the key to attempt double teaming/stripping Sacre but the pass was skipped to Pangos who let it fly
Death Ball 2: Another lapse by Reggie. He let Pangos float to about 9 o’clock and got caught between Pangos and Carter. Rather than make a decision to take one of them, he jumped straight in the air to attempt intercepting a pass he had no shot at, and Pangos had 6 points
Death Ball 3: Reggie gave him about 3 feet of room and dared him to shoot. This may have been Reggie’s best defense to date.
Death Ball 4: Fluke long rebound, half our team was back in transition.
Death Ball 5: Capers now guarding Pangos. Gonzaga rotated WSU’s defense perfectly to the right corner and the Cougs attempted a trap, forcing Capers to choose between Dower under the basket or Pangos at the top of the key. Deadly Snake in one door and man-eating Tiger in the other. Great offensive set.
Death Ball 6: Another fluke long rebound
Death Ball 7: Carter penetrated forcing Capers (in the corner guarding Pangos) to sag to the block stopping the ball. Simple kick-out to the corner and we’re three points poorer again.
Death Ball 8: Out of Bounds Play specifically run for Pangos, who ran through three screens and nailed another one at the top of the key, leaving Lacy about 2 screens short.
Death Ball 9: Indefensible defense by Faisal, sagging all the way to the elbow, leaving Pangos nothing but real estate.

So he torched it when we let him and torched it when we didn’t let him. The kid didn’t take a bad shot the whole night. Probably could’ve had 3 or 4 more threes, but couldn’t knock down EVERY wide open shot…

While there were several lapses from Reggie, he did a lot of what he was supposed to do on the other side of the ball: Penetrate and find a teammate with an easy look. If those easy looks had been converted, Reggie would’ve had around 12 assists last night. But alas, WSU misses more bunnies than your Oregon Trail hunter who eventually died of cholera. The shots were there; the points were not, if you catch my drift.

That’s not to say the offense went without its problems. Faze2012 has pretty much all the same features last year’s model had: pushing an early offense that isn’t there, committing to a dribble when there is an assist to be had, and letting the other team know that as soon as Faze’s head goes down, he’s shooting the ball whether you put five guys on him or not. Coach Bone’s commitment to Aden in the first half was certainly puzzling (Aden played the first THIRTEEN minutes and was the last starter to hit the bench), and it will be interesting to watch whether or not his leash becomes shorter as the preseason progresses.

Other quick hits from my notes:

• Motum and Simon’s repoire is noticeable. I’ve been tentative about Simon getting minutes this year, but they executed a few high-low looks that the defense had trouble with. Hopefully that continues.
• Faisel Aden with 23+ seconds on the shot clock: 1 for 6. With fewer than 23 seconds: 4 for 6.
• Shelton played limited minutes because he didn’t move without the ball. He spent the majority of his possessions clogging the lane by (ineffectively) posting up. Aron Baynes can do that. Shelton cannot.
• WSU allowed 12 points off 5 field goals on out of bounds plays.
• DiIorio: 5 fouls in 6 minutes. Sounds about right.
• Doris Burke lost me when explaining the value of redshirting in basketball.
• Wazz-who is an incredibly delicious pun and Gonzaga fans should be commended for thinking of it.

Plus/Minus for last night (An explanation for the Roland Rating can be found here)

Lacy 30
DiIorio 24
Ladd 14
Shelton 14
Simon 4
Motum -4
Moore -12
Aden -22
Capers -24
Enquist -24

Game 1

Plus/Minus from last night. Blowouts tend to skew numbers far away from the mean, so take Casto and Koprivica's numbers with a grain of salt. Same with Reggie on the positive side. Klay's just that damn good. The team stalled offensively every time he left the floor.

Thompson	34
Moore	24
Thames	10
Enquist	8
Lodwick	4
Capers	0
Casto	-8
Koprivica	-10
Harthun	-22
Motum	-22
Bjornstad	-28
Allen	-30
Loewen	-36
Brown	-36

Hide Your Daughters, Empty Arena!

19%


81%

Game Projection	Pts
Washington St.	56.8
UCLA	68.0

Projected High-Scorer Josh Shipp (UCLA) 15.2 pts

AccuScore Live Betting Predictions

Point Spread	AccuScore Probability
Washington State +8.5	41.4%
UCLA -8.5	58.8%

Over / Under	AccuScore Probability
OVR 122	55.3%
UND 122	43.0%

Money Line					AccuScore Probability
Washington State +360					19.2%%
UCLA -410					80.9%%
Team	Win Percent	Average Score	Big Win	Close Win
Washington St.	19.2%	56.8	6.1%	7.7%
UCLA	80.9%	68	55.9%	10.3%

* Big Win: 10 or more pts; Close Win: 4 or less pts

Plus/Minus for our two previous games vs. the Bruins:

	+/-	minutes
Baynes	+29	60
Koprivica	+23	37
Forrest	+11	58
Lodwick	0	5
Thompson	-3	77
Rochestie	-5	78
Harmeling	-7	6
Casto	-11	32
Enquist	-11	3
Capers	-29	44

A lot was mentioned about Taylor's 33 points the last time we played UCLA, but a bigger story was that we were KILLING the Bruins with Baynes on the court and in turn, getting killed when he was on the bench. It's IMPERATIVE we get 35 minutes from Sloth to have any sort of chance tonight to keep moving on in this thing….

A Game Changer

While we wait for the Cougars/Huskies tip, you should vote for Rochestie's game changing performance. http://www.pontiac.com/ncaa.

Hide your Daughters, cont'd

So I'm beginning to think that this afternoon might be one of those games that really tries a Coug's soul. For reference, see the 2008 Cougar football season....We have 4 games left....against the four best teams in the Pac-10. I'm trying to find a W in that mix. Kind of a sinking feeling to know we're going to finish 9th in both football and hoops.

Anyway, vs. the Trojans

Koprivica	22
Harthun	10
Capers	8
Lodwick	8
Forrest	2
Baynes	0
Casto	0
Rochestie	-10
Harmeling	-16
Thompson	-24

If we're looking at positives here, it's pretty impressive that we were able to keep it as close as we did when Thompson is having an off night. In the first half, Baynes missed a dunk and two 2-footers. He makes those and we're down 2 instead of 8 going into halftime and it's a completely different ballgame (one we had no business being in). Casto was night and day. In his first 6 quarters against Taj, DC looked lost and Taj was going to continue to do whatever he wanted. However, in that second half, D'Angelo still had some slipups on the defensive end of the floor (but some of those can be attributed to his teammates), he put together some fantastic post moves against one of the better interior defenders in the conference. Where the hell did those come from?

Looking ahead to our carnage at noon, here's how we looked the last time we played the Bruins:

	"+ / -"	minutes
Koprivica	+14	13
Forrest	+10	31
Baynes	+4	34
Lodwick	0	2
Thompson	-4	37
Rochestie	-6	38
Capers	-6	27
Casto	-16	15

We're probably not going to get another superhuman effort from Forrest, yet they're probably not going to get another superhuman effort from Drago either. Klay's gotta be huge this afternoon to keep this close, and Baynes has to take advantage of UCLA's lack of size early.

If I were Coach Sexy, I'd roll out a lineup with Taylor, Marcus and Nik on the wings and Caleb and Baynes down low. I'd have D'Angelo on a very short leash based on his defensive inadequacies against UCLA's ball rotation last time around.

Harmeling can stay on the bench again.

Choke.

All apologies, finished up my finals this week. I should be getting updates up more frequently from here out, my next class doesn’t start until March Madness, which as we have learned last Saturday, our chances are between none and stop making me laugh…

Plus/Minus against the Beavs

Forrest	+22
Capers	+12
Harthun	+4
Baynes	+2
Thompson	-4
Rochestie	-6
Koprivica	-8
Harmeling	-12
Casto	-12

And now the numbers for the season (per 40 minutes):

Capers	17.8
Casto	4.4
Koprivica	2.6
Thompson	1.9
Forrest	1.0
Harmeling	-0.4
Rochestie	-0.5
Baynes	-3.9
Lodwick	-27.5
Harthun	-82.7

Hide your Daughters, Corvallis

AccuScore Winning Percentage (Based on over 10,000 simulations)

21.5% 78.5%

Game Projection	Pts
Oregon St.	50.3
Washington St.	59.7

Projected High-Scorer Aron Baynes (WAST) 14.4 pts

Point Spread AccuScore Probability Oregon State +12 58.3% Washington State -12 38.7% Over / Under AccuScore Probability OVR 106 63.1% UND 106 35.2% Money Line AccuScore Probability Oregon State +620 21.5%% Washington State -800 78.5%%

Team	Win Percent	Average Score	Big Win	Close Win
Oregon St.	21.5%	50.3	5.4%	10.8%
Washington St.	78.5%	59.7	48.4%	13.4%

Everything for today points to our 6^th consecutive victory over the Beavs, despite the Obama/Conan power OSU brings to the table. Beating OSU in overtime on the road, here was our most efficient lineup:

	"+ / -"	minutes
Harmeling	+22	24
Forrest	+8	34
Capers	+6	20
Rochestie	+4	45
Baynes	+2	35

Obviously Capers isn’t going to play the SG, and Klay is unconscious as of late, hopefully he can handle the halfcourt trap better than the last time we played OS(U) (Klay finished with a -12, despite 5-10 shooting and 5 assists….4 turnovers didn’t help). With Baynes’ knee, 35 minutes may be too much to ask….Casto was pretty awful against the Beavs the first time around, but will the home crowd bring him back? Oregon State kept this thing close with second chance points, particularly in the first half, when Forrest and Witherill were trying to box out Deane and Tarver. Harmeling and Capers both were able to neutralize this last time, but will need everyone to do it against a team with a lot more confidence than the last time we played them.

Beat the halfcourt trap, knock down your shots over the zone and BOX THE HELL OUT; this game’s over by halftime.

Cougs Roll 14-Deep; probably a major violation

I honestly wasn't aware you were allowed to play more than 12 guys in one game....but the bench cleared as the Cougs just couldn't seem to miss.

So if I told you that in the 1st half: Baynes didn't score a single point, we didn't get to the free throw line once and a Kyle Weaver sighting was the highlight, how many points would you think we were down?

Didn't see the game, so not a ton of analysis, but I still have my reservations about Mike Harthun and why he's getting minutes. In the last four games he's played (@ASU, @Stan, @Cal, UO), our opponents have gone on a run pretty much the second he checks in. How many times in a row before it stops being coincidence. Suffice to say, he shattered Daven's plus/minus low for the season....on the bright side, Taylor also broke Daven's plus/minus HIGH for the year (crazy that Daven had both the high and low end of the pole). When your point guard has a high plus/minus, it's nearly impossible to lose.

Anyway, the stats: for the record, I am hesitant to include Boeke, Bailey, Lodwick, Witherill or Enquist, as they all had a -30 just for checking in....but I'm sure they'd rather know their stats...

Rochestie	+39
Thompson	+31
Koprivica	+21
Harmeling	+13
Casto	+9
Baynes	-5
Forrest	-5
Capers	-11
Lodwick	-25
Boeke	-33
Bailey	-33
Witherill	-35
Enquist	-37
Harthun	-47

Not a misprint.....Harthun had a -47.

Boeke also had 3 fouls in 3 minutes. So the comparisons to Baynes' early years continue....

Plus/Minus vs Arizona State

Koprivica +18
Casto +14
Thompson +12
Rochestie +10
Baynes +2
Harmeling  -6
Forrest -8
Harthun -22

Pretty glaring numbers that the game changed in the 2nd half when Casto and Nik were put into the game to guard their shooters.  Also, Harthun's six minutes of fury included two turnovers, an airball and getting dunked on by a dude we weren't sure could actually dunk.  Let's hope we can look back on this performance in 3 years and laugh.

This game gets Casto back to positive numbers for the year...and Baynes and Rochestie are so close to erasing his performance in the UW debacle.

Pac-10 Season to date (per 40)
Capers    +21.9
Harmeling +6.0
Casto +3.1
Koprivica +3.0
Baynes -0.3
Rochestie -1.8
Thompson -2.0
Forrest -5.3
Lodwick -22.3

So just based on how the team collectively does while you're on the court as opposed to when you're off the court, our best lineup is Capers and Koprivica at the guards, Harmeling and Casto at the forwards and Baynes manning the middle.  Would that lineup fare any better than the starting lineup we have now?