Cougs Roll 14-Deep; probably a major violation

I honestly wasn't aware you were allowed to play more than 12 guys in one game....but the bench cleared as the Cougs just couldn't seem to miss.

So if I told you that in the 1st half: Baynes didn't score a single point, we didn't get to the free throw line once and a Kyle Weaver sighting was the highlight, how many points would you think we were down?

Didn't see the game, so not a ton of analysis, but I still have my reservations about Mike Harthun and why he's getting minutes. In the last four games he's played (@ASU, @Stan, @Cal, UO), our opponents have gone on a run pretty much the second he checks in. How many times in a row before it stops being coincidence. Suffice to say, he shattered Daven's plus/minus low for the season....on the bright side, Taylor also broke Daven's plus/minus HIGH for the year (crazy that Daven had both the high and low end of the pole). When your point guard has a high plus/minus, it's nearly impossible to lose.

Anyway, the stats: for the record, I am hesitant to include Boeke, Bailey, Lodwick, Witherill or Enquist, as they all had a -30 just for checking in....but I'm sure they'd rather know their stats...

Rochestie	+39
Thompson	+31
Koprivica	+21
Harmeling	+13
Casto	+9
Baynes	-5
Forrest	-5
Capers	-11
Lodwick	-25
Boeke	-33
Bailey	-33
Witherill	-35
Enquist	-37
Harthun	-47

Not a misprint.....Harthun had a -47.

Boeke also had 3 fouls in 3 minutes. So the comparisons to Baynes' early years continue....

Plus/Minus vs Arizona State

Koprivica +18
Casto +14
Thompson +12
Rochestie +10
Baynes +2
Harmeling  -6
Forrest -8
Harthun -22

Pretty glaring numbers that the game changed in the 2nd half when Casto and Nik were put into the game to guard their shooters.  Also, Harthun's six minutes of fury included two turnovers, an airball and getting dunked on by a dude we weren't sure could actually dunk.  Let's hope we can look back on this performance in 3 years and laugh.

This game gets Casto back to positive numbers for the year...and Baynes and Rochestie are so close to erasing his performance in the UW debacle.

Pac-10 Season to date (per 40)
Capers    +21.9
Harmeling +6.0
Casto +3.1
Koprivica +3.0
Baynes -0.3
Rochestie -1.8
Thompson -2.0
Forrest -5.3
Lodwick -22.3

So just based on how the team collectively does while you're on the court as opposed to when you're off the court, our best lineup is Capers and Koprivica at the guards, Harmeling and Casto at the forwards and Baynes manning the middle.  Would that lineup fare any better than the starting lineup we have now?

Back from Pullman

So after proving that both myself and Paul Wulff are indeed vampires and can't take a decent picture, I headed home, tail between my legs after watching what might have been the worst game since the dawn of competitive hoop.

Watching Casto get absolutely used by Dragovich and then Gibson in back to back games made me wonder if he had switched jerseys with Daven; as amazing as Caleb's shot was falling on Thursday, the catalyst for the comeback was Nik's defense and will forever be unappreciated, and I still continue to ask myself why Tony feels Abe Lodwick is ready for regular minutes.

I've been playing with a full-time job, grad school and a trip to Pullman, so I haven't posted the +/- for the past 3 games; all apologies, here we go:

@ Oregon

Capers +22
Rochestie +16
Thompson +16
Baynes +10
Casto +4
Koprivica -6
Forrest -10
Harmeling -14
Lodwick -20

vs. UCLA
Koprivica +14
Forrest +10
Baynes +4
Lodwick 0
Thompson -4
Rochestie -6
Capers -6
Casto -16

vs. USC
Capers +14
Baynes +8
Harmeling +6
Koprivica +2
Forrest -4
Lodwick -4
Rochestie -6
Thompson -6
Casto -12

Season Totals (per 40 mins)

Capers +21.9
Harmeling +9.5
Baynes -0.7
Casto -1.5
Koprivica -2.9
Rochestie -3.5
Forrest -4.2
Thompson -4.2
Lodwick -22.3

Yes We Can!!!

Well, first the happy +/- totals are in order. We're slowly starting to get back to respectable numbers after the UW debacle

Against OSU:

Harmeling +22
Forrest +8
Capers +6
Rochestie +4
Baynes +2
Enquist -4
Casto -6
Koprivica -12
Thompson -14

And for Pac-10 Play (minimum 3 games):

Capers +8.5
Harmeling +8
Casto +5
Lodwick 0
Forrest -4
Koprivica -4.5
Baynes -7
Rochestie -7
Thompson -8

I've been reading the Coug blogs and message boards, and there's been one huge point that I've been wanting to dispell but have just been too lazy. Here's what I have contention with:

Myth: we weren’t feeding Baynes enough.
Fact: At times, that was all we were doing. Several possessions in the 2nd half were spent with four wings hanging out around the 3 point line waiting for the double team on Baynes to wear off. Do this for me the next time you’re watching a Coug game this year and are asking “Why aren’t we passing it to Baynes?”, try asking “What are the wings doing to get Baynes open?” instead. Baynes doesn’t miss his touches because “we’re not feeding the beast enough”, he misses his touches because we’re trying to hard to be lazy (if that makes sense) by doing nothing BUT “feed the beast”. Now let us please put this argument to rest…

The more and more I watch him, the less and less I want Klay Thompson in the backcourt. He’s a Small Forward, albeit a skinny one. Watching him try to break Oregon State’s (lazy) press was a nightmare, and it was obvious Craig Robinson watched the film from the Gonzaga game over and over. Teams will beat us if they press us when Thompson is the 2-guard.

Speaking of beating the press, while I’m not thrilled with our execution against the half-court trap, I think the Cougs did a much better job of setting up the early offense and getting good looks while OSU was setting up their Defense after the broken press. During the Gonzaga game, we seemed to consider it a victory to get the ball past halfcourt, leading to poor shot selection. When we make the defense pay for pressing, it leads to the 70% FG percentage we had in the first half.

Making the case for Daven: I noted above that Daven had our highest +/- total in a Pac-10 game so far this season with a +22. While Daven has been Coug Nation’s whipping boy (most of it deservedly), Harmeling really matches up well with a team like the Beavs (ie: a team with Forwards that would rather shoot jumpers than put the ball on the floor.) BH (Before Harmeling), we couldn’t pay Deane any amount of money to keep him off the offensive glass. AH, Deane was boxed out every shot, and while Harmeling didn’t get the board, Deane didn’t either. With about 8 minutes left in the first half, Enquist comes in for Harmeling, and the Beavs start dominating the offensive glass again. For all of Daven’s shooting struggles, and for all the crap I’ve given him for getting shook when isolated, I will be the first to point out that Daven’s contributions to this victory will never show up on a stat sheet, but we would not have won last night without him.

Rochestie played 45 minutes last night, and has 39 hours to rest before probably having to run another 38 minutes Saturday morning. This was coming from a Taylor that was already getting routinely beaten off the dribble by Claitt and Wallace, and now gets even quicker guards tomorrow. That doesn’t sit well with me.

Next up are the Ducks, who figure to still be a must-win, as I think we're going to be very lucky to get 2 wins out of the six games that follow. Color me nervous.

Casto Cometh!

More thoughts will be up later, but let's face it: this game belonged to Casto. While he seemed to make a highlight play every time up and down the court in the 2nd half, it showed up on the stat sheet as well, becoming the first Coug to have a double digit +/- game in conference play this season....all the more impressive since he had better numbers than all the starters.

Another interesting bit of trivia: the only person to have positive numbers in the dreadful first half? Klay? Casto? Schlatter? nope. Daven Harmeling had a +2. The second game in a row he's had positive numbers, even in a double digit defeat on Thursday. His shots aren't falling and he can't seem to guard a D-1 small forward to save his life, but whatever it is, the team played better this week when he was on the court.

Versus Stanford
Casto +19
Koprivica +9
Capers+7
Harmeling +3
Rochestie +1
Thompson -3
Baynes -7
Lodwick -13
Forrest -15

Totals vs Pac-10 (The team's at a -8.7 right now)

Capers +0.3
Casto +0.0
Lodwick -0.5
Harmeling -2.7
Harthun -4.0
Koprivica -5.3
Thompson -7.3
Forrest -8.3
Baynes -9.0
Rochestie -9.7

Sky Falling, in search of Shami Gil for offense...

Since I didn't see the game, my opinions will be limited, but seems like same-ol-same-ol.... We continue to allow 3 pointers to rain on us to depressing levels, we continue to miss layups, and we continue to lose at home. That's now four in a row (!!!). Bud Namek isn't nearly as unlistenable as he used to be; I'm pretty sure his signature call has always been arguing about a foul that wasn't called at such length, he missed Oregon hitting a game-winning 3 against us.

He seemed to call at least 5 or 6 "3's" from the Cougs, when we actually had a foot on the line. If those were all 3's we may have won? I'm grasping at straws, this is killing me.

Anyway, the Plus/Minus for the game:

Lodwick +5
Capers +2
Baynes -2
Forrest -3
Harmeling -4
Casto -5
Thompson -7
Koprivica -10
Rochestie -12

And so far, for Pac-10 Play:

Lodwick +5
Capers -1.5
Harthun -4
Harmeling -5
Casto -5
Forrest -9
Thompson -10.5
Koprivica -10.5
Baynes -12
Rochestie -15

Take it for what it's worth, but so far in this young Pac-10 season, we'd be at our best (statistically speaking) when Abe Lodwick, Marcus Capers, Mike Harthun, Daven Harmeling and DeAngelo Casto are on the floor....and even then we pretty much suck.

The shots have got to start falling eventually....right?

Let's all burn down Tony's House!!!!

Well, on the 2nd viewing of this game, I really wasn't as upset. There were some good things to take out of this, and UW made quite a few circus 3's to keep them in it in the 1st half, and it seemed pretty much every break went the Huskies' way (not referring to the officiating, just crazy loose balls that seemed to bounce off our hands and into the purples'). It was evident we had given up with 5 minutes left, which made me upset, given the lineup we had in there.

Are the Huskies that good? I don't think so, but we'll see. Washington had been struggling from beyond the arc for most of the preseason, and then their guards sunk them at nearly a 70% clip against us. I think Tony's gameplan was mostly to pack it in against Brockman, MBA and Pondexter (2 out of 3 ain't bad) and wasn't concerned with the Husky outside shot, and they made us pay for it.

I noticed Harmeling not play the final 15 or so minutes of the game....and it was deserved. Add Pondexter to the seemingly never-ending list of Small Forwards who have abused Daven this season.

Plus/Minus from the game (it ain't pretty)

Harthun -4
Casto -5
Capers -5
Harmeling -6
Koprivica -11
Thompson -14
Forrest -15
Rochestie -18
Baynes -22

Not much left to say. I'm thinking Casto's coming along much faster than we initially anticipated, other than that....I'm at a loss for words. I'll hold my judgement on where we stand after watching the Sunday games.

Nerd Science through Non-Con

Time to panic?

Here is an updated win-score (adjusted for pace and minutes played). For those unfamiliar with Win Score, it's essentially a combination of every stat imaginable up to, but not including who can Drunken Master themselves all the way to the rim before dribbling the ball off their neck (Hi, Nikola!)

For those still unconvinced Rochestie's NASDAQ has dropped in a big way, note that he not only led our team in Win Score last year (with Low, Weaver and Robbie on the team) but it was more than double the number it is now (Taylor finished the season a shade above 19 last season)

I've adjusted these number for pace and minutes played. In the NBA, Hollinger considers a 15 to be an AVERAGE player. We're having some trouble here, fellas....

Aron Baynes 18.33
Klay Thompson 13.87
Nikola Koprivica 12.76
Marcus Capers 12.33
Taylor Rochestie 9.89
DeAngelo Casto 9.36
Daven Harmeling 9.06
Charlie Enquist 7.47
Caleb Forrest 7.08
Abe Lodwick -0.51

Meh....

So with all the traffic and the Key Arena parking lot all of a sudden being closed (shows you how often I drive across the bridge), we didn't get to our seats until about 5 minutes into the first half. Then when I came home to watch it on the tivo, turns out those 5 minutes were also missing from the broadcast due to the Beaver game. So those five minutes are lost to me....

Anyway, not much to take out of this game. We were hitting our wide open shots at a higher clip than we had been over the last few games, which was nice to see, regarless of our opponent. If you have the ability to re-watch this game, I'd suggest watching the last 5 minutes or so of the first half and watch Baynes move from the block to the high post and back down, setting 2-3 picks on every possession, and how fluid our offense becomes when it happens. Why he only does this against inferior teams, I'll never know. For those who think we're going to miss Aron next year, I think we'll be ok as long as our new center moves like this on every possession.

Plus/minus for the evening (I'm really looking forward to Pac-10 play when we can start looking at progression rather than snapshots)

Thompson +22
Rochestie +21
Koprivica +15
Baynes +13
Casto +12
Harmeling +7
Forrest +6
Boeke +3
Witherill +3
Lodwick +1
Capers -2
Harthun -2
Enquist -4

Capers and Forrest's numbers are a bit skewed as they were on the court with the rest of the freshmen playing MSU's starters at the end. I think I speak for all of Cougar Nation when I plead to Tony to start Caleb over either Nik or Daven. We're simply a better team with him on the floor. Maybe Tony likes having him bring up the 2nd unit, but I think he deserves a look, maybe against Idaho, where a win is inevitable.

We did some things right, and we were also very lazy as well. Lanes on defense seemed to be open the entire 2nd half, although there were several times both Casto and Harthun were out of position to help, when a starter probably would've made the play. There are a lot of people calling for Harthun to get increased minutes, but I think his off-ball defense is keeping him off the court for the time being.

So did Sterk take a look at our schedule last summer and thank Jesus we have 8 days to prepare for Idaho?

Still Breathing?

All apologies for not getting this up yesterday, I've been out of town on business and from the looks of it, it may have been a good thing. I ended up watching this game in a bar full of Laker fans demanding my one little TV be switched over to the Laker/Sun game because nobody gives a fuck about Wazzu. Well, I gave a fuck about Wazzu and fortunately I had a solid 30 pounds on anyone who was bitching.

Anyway, not a lot to add to what other bloggers have said, but wanted to list a few. Let's start with the plus/minus for the game (it's not pretty)

Capers 8
Lodwick 8
Enquist 4
Harthun 4
Casto 1
Forrest -5
Thompson -22
Baynes -25
Koprivica -25
Harmeling -28
Rochestie -30

I really hate to say it, but I think this is the first time Coach Dreamy really ate a shit sandwich. I frankly can't believe the gameplan all week was "let's go out and trade threes with Gonzaga and just see what the fuck happens".... It seemed there was no effort to curb that when it was going on all throughout the first half. And maybe this one's not Tony's fault, but more of whoever on the staff is doing the scouting, but Austin Daye has had no J to speak of for the past few weeks, but is the Zags' best bet to beat someone off the dribble. So who do we stick on him? You guessed it: Daven. In fact Ehlo's facepalm this evening was "You know I can never remember Harmeling ever getting shook as badly as he did at the end of the first half." I'm going to go ahead and just assume Ehlo does not RSS this blog.

What to say about that 2nd half. Well, Gonzaga is great and all, but we really played like shit. I can't emphasize and bolden the word SHIT strongly enough. I'm seriously flipping off that second half as hard as I can... If you want a little difference that goes a long way from last year to this year is the way we handled Gonzaga's diamond press. It's not an incredibly aggressive press, in fact I don't know why they run it. For years, it's constantly gotten them out of position on defense and it produces few turnovers. Last year we exploited it by making the correct pass, ended up with a 3-on-2 or 4-on-3 and the early offense allowed an easy Baynes/Cowgill/Weaver score.

This year? If we were able to get the ball up the court before 12 seconds ticked off or before we chucked it out of bounds for no particular reason, once we got up the court with numbers we actually HELD ONTO THE FUCKING BALL UNTIL GONZAGA'S DEFENSE GOT BACK AND WAS SET UP! Seriously, either we have the classiest, most polite offense in the country, or we just don't know what the fuck we're doing. When you completely give them back the one disadvantage to running that press on every possession, there's no reason not to press every play. Last year we made them pay enough times that eventually they stopped running it. This year? Shit sandwich.

Everyone's freaking out about Rochestie. You want my solution? Don't play him so damn much. Sit him 8 minutes per game. Other than that, I've got nothing. I don't think he's forcing much, but I do think he might be tired.

Oh and with five minutes left, we had all of our starters pulled (save for Daven). Gonzaga's up by 3o and still has all their starters IN THE GAME still pressing and still jacking three's. So much for that classy Gonzaga/WSU rivalry. Fuck Gonzaga. Fuck them in the fucking ear.

One positive note on the evening: Sloth shaved that damn mustache.

Nerd Science through 7 games

Well, some signs of a young team are becoming more and more evident. We're averaging nearly EIGHT fewer possessions this season than we did last, which is pretty crazy...considering we were already one of the most methodical teams in the nation.

Anyway, here is Hollinger's Win Score for each team, unadjusted for 40 minutes..... (ie: how many wins each player is worth)

Aron Baynes 10.89
Klay Thompson 10.31
Taylor Rochestie 8.29
Daven Harmeling 6.06
Nikola Koprivica 5.93
Caleb Forrest 4.50
DeAngelo Casto 3.63
Charlie Enquist 2.46
Marcus Capers 1.59
Abe Lodwick-0.10

A few things jumped out at me when looking through the stats.

1.) We suck out loud at getting to the free throw line so far this season. Only Taylor and Sloth are averaging over one trip to the stripe, and both of them cleared that BARELY. Both of them need to be shooting at least 6 free throws per game.

2.) If Daven is going to be playing as many minutes as he is, he needs to be shooting MUCH more. As an example, so far he's played 60 total minutes more than Caleb, and he's only taken 4 shots more total. Daven's biggest attribute is not his defense, it's not his floor-accumen, it's not his rebounding, it's his J. If Coach Tony is going to keep giving him 25 minutes per game, he needs to be getting off more than a shot every 10 minutes. He was shooting nearly twice as much last year on a team with more weapons and playing 5 less minutes per game. Solution: STOP STARTING DAVEN AT THE FOUR. HE'S NOT A POWER FORWARD. HE'S A TALL JUMP-SHOOTER.

(ok, breathing now...)

3.) I'm going to say this one more time about our lineups: We've played one great team where we were smacked in the mouth and happened to stay in the game because we started off the game unconscious from the outside. When we start playing the more talented teams on a regular basis (ie: Saturday), we need to shift PT to players playing in their natural positions. Small-Ball is great....when you can run....and we can't run. So please, shift Daven back to the 3, Have him come off the bench for Nic, start Caleb at the 4 and get as many minutes as you can from Casto (who will likely spend the majority of the season in foul trouble), as you'll need Caleb to spell Sloth. I am looking forward to the day where Enquist gets put on the Cowgill 4,000 calorie diet.

I'm Idaho (State)!

So after watching Taylor and company get thoroughly dominated by a team of All-Americans on Saturday, it was refreshing to watch us come in and beat on the Little Sisters of the Poor for a night. CORRECTION: We actually played the Little Sisters of the Poor minus their four-year starting Point Guard. Matt Stucki was at home having a baby. Upon further inspection, did you know in the dream season, we only beat this team by 6? I was pretty shocked, too. On the plus side, it was nice to pull the starters up 28 points and play the freshmen for the last 7 minutes. We even had a Dolph sighting for a few minutes!

For those who care, here were the plus/minus on the evening. You'll notice the starters all have incredible numbers and the freshmen didn't do so hot against the ISU starters.

Rochestie +28
Baynes +24
Harmeling +24
Koprivica +21
Thompson +20
Casto +4
Forrest +2
Capers +1
Witherill -2
Boeke -3
Enquist -6
Harthun -9
Lodwick -9

Outside of the box sccore, I was really impressed with Baynes, and have been all season. His weight loss is really helping the team on the offensive end. There were large stretches last season when our offense would set up in mover/blocker and Baynes would just camp out in the key hoping for an opening. This sesason, he (along with Casto) are really getting into setting BIG picks for the wings, which is why Daven and Klay had so many wide open shots. Then in the 2nd half when ISU switched to a zone, he was able to stay off the blocks long enough to spread the defense out and we were able to penetrate because of it. Game ball, Sloth. You earned it.

This was FSN's first Coug game of the season, and may I be the first person to say how refreshing it is to enjoy college hoops without Brian Davis fucking it up. Oh, and his Thunder lost again tonight.

Ehlo only had one Facepalm tonight, this time essentially making up a Superhero Origins story from just reading the roster: "You gotta realize he's left handed, and Coach Bennett's left-handed and he was a point guard who was left handed, and that's why Taylor's out there so much..." Getting no reaction from Todd Mansfield, Ehlo elaborated his Southpaw-Cult theory in the 2nd half by telling us the only reason Capers was recruited at all was because he's also left-handed.

Looking forward to what he says about Baylor on Saturday....

I love Klay Thompson's jumper so much, I want to take it out behind the Middle School and get it pregnant

Saw my first Cougar game of the season over the weekend and seriously: I thought Kelati had the prettiest jump shot I'd ever seen in a Coug uniform, but good lord, Thompson is going to be something special. His release is so quick and accurate, this is going to completely change how teams plan for us. It's a zone-buster. It's Christmas and Shark Week rolled into one.

I was impressed with Capers' maturity and ability to run the office while McLovin sits. We're going to be happy with him. I've also read that Watson is going to redshirt this year, so Casto is going to be our starting PF once coach Dreamy decides Caleb's better coming off the bench.

One negative thing I noticed was Daven was routinely getting beaten off the drive and in the post. A couple times, he was just flat-out shook out of his shoes. Crazy thing was on both of those plays he came right back down the court and hit a 3-ball on the ensuing drive. This scares me once I realize the list of players he'll be manning-up against 25 minutes a night: Tasmin Mitchell, Austin Daye, DeMar DeRozan, Josh Shipp, and Jamal Boykin headline a pretty strong list of Small Forwards on our schedule.

Up this weekend for him in New Jersey: Ravern Johnson of Mississippi State and either Mike Singletary of Texas Tech or Gilbert Brown of Pitt. After that we should be able to tell if Daven can handle starting in the Pac-10 or praying that Dolph's back heals by Christmas.

Now we just need to figure out who the hell has HDNet.

Starting 5 thoughts

During the WSU scrimmage today, Coach Tony mentioned the starting five for the Cougs would likely be McLovin at the 1, Klay at the 2, Daven at the 3, Caleb at the 4 and Sloth manning the middle. Other than Klay, we'd be starting 4 seniors. Now I will go ahead and mention that Tony will have forgotten more about basketball in the next five minutes than I'll ever learn in my lifetime, but I can't imagine this is going to be our starting five all season. I think a lot of this has to do with Fabian's back problems, as his hype alone is probably enough to start at the 3. I think Daven is better off in a Ricky Pierce role off the bench (sans GP feud). He can still score 20 in a game in a situational role, and I think him coming off the bench would be ideal. Although if Boeke can't play this year, it doesn't leave us with much choice.

Another player I loved coming off the bench last season was Caleb. His defensive intensity and situational rebounding was key in our run last season. I'd love to see one of the kids start, either Watson or Casto (Watson is outrebounding Castro in the pic). Both look to be able to rebound in the Pac-10 NOW, and Casto's jumper in preps was good to 18 feet (I don't believe Oklahoma exists in the union, so I'm unfamiliar with Watson's high school days). Perhaps Tony doesn't think either of them could defend a Jon Brockman or Taj Gibson yet; maybe they'll be ready by Pac-10 play. My beer gut thinks Caleb is better for the Cougars in spurts off the bench.

Anyway, my ideal starting-5 (if all are healthy) is

1 Rochestie

2 Thompson

3 Boeke

4 Watson/Casto

5 Baynes

reserves: Daven, Nik, Casto/Watson, Caleb, Capers and possibly Enquist.

I need to work on getting nicknames for everyone...