Plus/Minus vs Arizona State

Koprivica +18
Casto +14
Thompson +12
Rochestie +10
Baynes +2
Harmeling  -6
Forrest -8
Harthun -22

Pretty glaring numbers that the game changed in the 2nd half when Casto and Nik were put into the game to guard their shooters.  Also, Harthun's six minutes of fury included two turnovers, an airball and getting dunked on by a dude we weren't sure could actually dunk.  Let's hope we can look back on this performance in 3 years and laugh.

This game gets Casto back to positive numbers for the year...and Baynes and Rochestie are so close to erasing his performance in the UW debacle.

Pac-10 Season to date (per 40)
Capers    +21.9
Harmeling +6.0
Casto +3.1
Koprivica +3.0
Baynes -0.3
Rochestie -1.8
Thompson -2.0
Forrest -5.3
Lodwick -22.3

So just based on how the team collectively does while you're on the court as opposed to when you're off the court, our best lineup is Capers and Koprivica at the guards, Harmeling and Casto at the forwards and Baynes manning the middle.  Would that lineup fare any better than the starting lineup we have now?

Whither Koprivica?

A couple years ago when Nik was a freshman, I came up with the nickname "Drunken Master" for him, referring to an old Chinese fighting style where your opponent appears to be stumbling, off-balance and out of control to lure you into a false sense of security, then that dude who is actually in complete control gives you a swift roundhouse to the face.

That was Nik's style when he had the ball; incredibly reckless, yet completely in control.  There were some drives he had against UW in 2007 that made us think we had something incredibly special for the next two years....

So then his leg falls off, yadda yadda, you know the rest of the story...now he's back and something seems a bit "off" offensively.  I don't think he's lost a step from his injury, as he's able to keep up on the defensive end as well as anyone in the conference, and we've seen flashes of brilliance this season (the Stanford game comes to mind:  Nik had two of the prettiest baseline deke's I've seen this year, leaving his defender's shoes around the 3-point line.  The problem was a Cardinal defender would position himself under the hoop, not allowing Nik to land and he was tacked with two of the most egregious charge calls I've ever seen...and the fact that they called it twice speaks volumes.  Nik picks up two quick fouls, goes to the bench, and we don't see that move again for the rest of the game.)  Are teams keen on his deceptive game now, and they now just give him enough rope to hang himself?  Will he be able to adjust?

The genesis of this rant came from watching the USC game from the rafters... Coug Nation is fed up with Nik;  and I'm still not sure why.  He's still one of the best match up-defenders on the team, if not the best (the job he did on Josh Shipp in the 2nd half of the UCLA game was nothing short of masterful, and his work on Kuksiks on Thursday night was completely overshadowed by Casto's big night....which might bring me to my next point).

Anyway, at the USC game, Nik checks in for the first time since putting up solid minutes against the Bruins and plays pretty quietly for about 3-4 minutes, then commits a turnover.  Boo-birds.  At home.  I don't really mind it when people boo, nor do I care when people get on players on message boards, etc., as long as it's warranted.  Nik committed one turnover and got booed.  Meanwhile, Casto was absolutely used by Dragovich on Thursday and used even harder by Gibson Saturday and leaves to standing ovations both times.

I guess that wrapping up my rant will just say this:  cut Nik some fucking slack.  He'll figure it out.  My original thoughts on this were why Coug Nation was so down on Koprivica, yet had turned Casto into a folk hero, when in essence they were the same player: both are sensational situational defenders (and can get torched in other situations), both are turnover prone, yet can show a flash of offensive brilliance, and both can make you gasp at least once a game (both good and bad).

Then it dawned on me:  Casto is the 2009 incarnation of Nik: the freshman phenom to come from out of nowhere that we overlook their glaring weaknesses and simply embrace everything that is awesome about them.  So now I have to come up with a fighting style for D'Angelo now.

PS: Again, cut Nik some fucking slack!

Back from Pullman

So after proving that both myself and Paul Wulff are indeed vampires and can't take a decent picture, I headed home, tail between my legs after watching what might have been the worst game since the dawn of competitive hoop.

Watching Casto get absolutely used by Dragovich and then Gibson in back to back games made me wonder if he had switched jerseys with Daven; as amazing as Caleb's shot was falling on Thursday, the catalyst for the comeback was Nik's defense and will forever be unappreciated, and I still continue to ask myself why Tony feels Abe Lodwick is ready for regular minutes.

I've been playing with a full-time job, grad school and a trip to Pullman, so I haven't posted the +/- for the past 3 games; all apologies, here we go:

@ Oregon

Capers +22
Rochestie +16
Thompson +16
Baynes +10
Casto +4
Koprivica -6
Forrest -10
Harmeling -14
Lodwick -20

vs. UCLA
Koprivica +14
Forrest +10
Baynes +4
Lodwick 0
Thompson -4
Rochestie -6
Capers -6
Casto -16

vs. USC
Capers +14
Baynes +8
Harmeling +6
Koprivica +2
Forrest -4
Lodwick -4
Rochestie -6
Thompson -6
Casto -12

Season Totals (per 40 mins)

Capers +21.9
Harmeling +9.5
Baynes -0.7
Casto -1.5
Koprivica -2.9
Rochestie -3.5
Forrest -4.2
Thompson -4.2
Lodwick -22.3

Casto Cometh!

More thoughts will be up later, but let's face it: this game belonged to Casto. While he seemed to make a highlight play every time up and down the court in the 2nd half, it showed up on the stat sheet as well, becoming the first Coug to have a double digit +/- game in conference play this season....all the more impressive since he had better numbers than all the starters.

Another interesting bit of trivia: the only person to have positive numbers in the dreadful first half? Klay? Casto? Schlatter? nope. Daven Harmeling had a +2. The second game in a row he's had positive numbers, even in a double digit defeat on Thursday. His shots aren't falling and he can't seem to guard a D-1 small forward to save his life, but whatever it is, the team played better this week when he was on the court.

Versus Stanford
Casto +19
Koprivica +9
Capers+7
Harmeling +3
Rochestie +1
Thompson -3
Baynes -7
Lodwick -13
Forrest -15

Totals vs Pac-10 (The team's at a -8.7 right now)

Capers +0.3
Casto +0.0
Lodwick -0.5
Harmeling -2.7
Harthun -4.0
Koprivica -5.3
Thompson -7.3
Forrest -8.3
Baynes -9.0
Rochestie -9.7

Sky Falling, in search of Shami Gil for offense...

Since I didn't see the game, my opinions will be limited, but seems like same-ol-same-ol.... We continue to allow 3 pointers to rain on us to depressing levels, we continue to miss layups, and we continue to lose at home. That's now four in a row (!!!). Bud Namek isn't nearly as unlistenable as he used to be; I'm pretty sure his signature call has always been arguing about a foul that wasn't called at such length, he missed Oregon hitting a game-winning 3 against us.

He seemed to call at least 5 or 6 "3's" from the Cougs, when we actually had a foot on the line. If those were all 3's we may have won? I'm grasping at straws, this is killing me.

Anyway, the Plus/Minus for the game:

Lodwick +5
Capers +2
Baynes -2
Forrest -3
Harmeling -4
Casto -5
Thompson -7
Koprivica -10
Rochestie -12

And so far, for Pac-10 Play:

Lodwick +5
Capers -1.5
Harthun -4
Harmeling -5
Casto -5
Forrest -9
Thompson -10.5
Koprivica -10.5
Baynes -12
Rochestie -15

Take it for what it's worth, but so far in this young Pac-10 season, we'd be at our best (statistically speaking) when Abe Lodwick, Marcus Capers, Mike Harthun, Daven Harmeling and DeAngelo Casto are on the floor....and even then we pretty much suck.

The shots have got to start falling eventually....right?

Nerd Science through Non-Con

Time to panic?

Here is an updated win-score (adjusted for pace and minutes played). For those unfamiliar with Win Score, it's essentially a combination of every stat imaginable up to, but not including who can Drunken Master themselves all the way to the rim before dribbling the ball off their neck (Hi, Nikola!)

For those still unconvinced Rochestie's NASDAQ has dropped in a big way, note that he not only led our team in Win Score last year (with Low, Weaver and Robbie on the team) but it was more than double the number it is now (Taylor finished the season a shade above 19 last season)

I've adjusted these number for pace and minutes played. In the NBA, Hollinger considers a 15 to be an AVERAGE player. We're having some trouble here, fellas....

Aron Baynes 18.33
Klay Thompson 13.87
Nikola Koprivica 12.76
Marcus Capers 12.33
Taylor Rochestie 9.89
DeAngelo Casto 9.36
Daven Harmeling 9.06
Charlie Enquist 7.47
Caleb Forrest 7.08
Abe Lodwick -0.51

Meh....

So with all the traffic and the Key Arena parking lot all of a sudden being closed (shows you how often I drive across the bridge), we didn't get to our seats until about 5 minutes into the first half. Then when I came home to watch it on the tivo, turns out those 5 minutes were also missing from the broadcast due to the Beaver game. So those five minutes are lost to me....

Anyway, not much to take out of this game. We were hitting our wide open shots at a higher clip than we had been over the last few games, which was nice to see, regarless of our opponent. If you have the ability to re-watch this game, I'd suggest watching the last 5 minutes or so of the first half and watch Baynes move from the block to the high post and back down, setting 2-3 picks on every possession, and how fluid our offense becomes when it happens. Why he only does this against inferior teams, I'll never know. For those who think we're going to miss Aron next year, I think we'll be ok as long as our new center moves like this on every possession.

Plus/minus for the evening (I'm really looking forward to Pac-10 play when we can start looking at progression rather than snapshots)

Thompson +22
Rochestie +21
Koprivica +15
Baynes +13
Casto +12
Harmeling +7
Forrest +6
Boeke +3
Witherill +3
Lodwick +1
Capers -2
Harthun -2
Enquist -4

Capers and Forrest's numbers are a bit skewed as they were on the court with the rest of the freshmen playing MSU's starters at the end. I think I speak for all of Cougar Nation when I plead to Tony to start Caleb over either Nik or Daven. We're simply a better team with him on the floor. Maybe Tony likes having him bring up the 2nd unit, but I think he deserves a look, maybe against Idaho, where a win is inevitable.

We did some things right, and we were also very lazy as well. Lanes on defense seemed to be open the entire 2nd half, although there were several times both Casto and Harthun were out of position to help, when a starter probably would've made the play. There are a lot of people calling for Harthun to get increased minutes, but I think his off-ball defense is keeping him off the court for the time being.

So did Sterk take a look at our schedule last summer and thank Jesus we have 8 days to prepare for Idaho?

Let the Bears pay the Bear tax, I pay the Homer Tax

What to say.....well, looking at the plus/minus numbers for tonight



Thompson 8
Harmeling 1
Baynes 0
Lodwick -2
Harthun -4
Rochestie -6
Casto -6
Forrest -6
Capers -7
Koprivica -8

So even when Klay's shots aren't falling, he's causing enough distraction that we play much better when he's on the court.

I guess the positive here is it could've been much worse. This game just felt like we should've been down 20 the entire time, particularly in the first half when Klay sat. I spent a good deal of the game watching Baynes on the offensive end, and noticed for last night at least he regressed to some of the laziness that plagued him last season. You have the wings running a motion offense, and while the movers are moving, the blockers are....camping out on the block demanding the ball. I don't have enough fingers to count how many times a wing crossed the court, got within a foot of Baynes and he just stood there without setting a pick because he was concentrating too hard on getting the ball.... Not to mention this was generally with 25 seconds left on the shot clock. In previous games this season, he was setting that pick before camping on the block, often getting up to the high post as well, which opened lanes up and the offense was moving. Against Baylor, we just kept passing around the wings hoping to either dump it into Baynes or taking a last-second three. Taking this into consideration it's no wonder Rochestie missed his last TEN shots.

After every awkward Casto post-move, I couldn't help but notice Caleb sitting on the bench. Forrest didn't play the entire second half. While I was very impressed with Casto's work on Acey in the post and how many shots in the paint were altered when he was down there, it still doesn't take away the fact he's becoming an offensive liability...and that's being kind. Fouling Casto at this point is no better than turning the ball over. You know you're not getting any points out of it. Now he's a freshman, I'm not expecting a ton out of him this year, but I don't think he gives you anything more than Forrest does at this point, and Forrest doesn't cower offensively when posting up someone bigger/stronger than him. Capers was also a no-show in the 2nd half as well, as Rochestie played all 40 minutes (!!!).

No Ehlo Facepalms today, as FSN ponied up the ducats to get Kez Johnson to Pullman. Nothing makes me happier than a Kez-called game. A few gems, one about Capers arms being so long he's able to scrach his knees without bending over, and later talking about the Coug defense will make you feel like Mavin Johnson: no rhythm (Any reference from The Jerk in 2008 deserves mention).

Oh well, I didn't expect this would be a Cougar victory, and after watching the first half, I was happy it was a game with a minute left. So there is something to hang our hat on. As crazy as it sounds, I actually think we match up with Gonzaga better than we did Baylor (still expecting a loss though), more on that later this week.

Nerd Science through 7 games

Well, some signs of a young team are becoming more and more evident. We're averaging nearly EIGHT fewer possessions this season than we did last, which is pretty crazy...considering we were already one of the most methodical teams in the nation.

Anyway, here is Hollinger's Win Score for each team, unadjusted for 40 minutes..... (ie: how many wins each player is worth)

Aron Baynes 10.89
Klay Thompson 10.31
Taylor Rochestie 8.29
Daven Harmeling 6.06
Nikola Koprivica 5.93
Caleb Forrest 4.50
DeAngelo Casto 3.63
Charlie Enquist 2.46
Marcus Capers 1.59
Abe Lodwick-0.10

A few things jumped out at me when looking through the stats.

1.) We suck out loud at getting to the free throw line so far this season. Only Taylor and Sloth are averaging over one trip to the stripe, and both of them cleared that BARELY. Both of them need to be shooting at least 6 free throws per game.

2.) If Daven is going to be playing as many minutes as he is, he needs to be shooting MUCH more. As an example, so far he's played 60 total minutes more than Caleb, and he's only taken 4 shots more total. Daven's biggest attribute is not his defense, it's not his floor-accumen, it's not his rebounding, it's his J. If Coach Tony is going to keep giving him 25 minutes per game, he needs to be getting off more than a shot every 10 minutes. He was shooting nearly twice as much last year on a team with more weapons and playing 5 less minutes per game. Solution: STOP STARTING DAVEN AT THE FOUR. HE'S NOT A POWER FORWARD. HE'S A TALL JUMP-SHOOTER.

(ok, breathing now...)

3.) I'm going to say this one more time about our lineups: We've played one great team where we were smacked in the mouth and happened to stay in the game because we started off the game unconscious from the outside. When we start playing the more talented teams on a regular basis (ie: Saturday), we need to shift PT to players playing in their natural positions. Small-Ball is great....when you can run....and we can't run. So please, shift Daven back to the 3, Have him come off the bench for Nic, start Caleb at the 4 and get as many minutes as you can from Casto (who will likely spend the majority of the season in foul trouble), as you'll need Caleb to spell Sloth. I am looking forward to the day where Enquist gets put on the Cowgill 4,000 calorie diet.

Starting 5 thoughts

During the WSU scrimmage today, Coach Tony mentioned the starting five for the Cougs would likely be McLovin at the 1, Klay at the 2, Daven at the 3, Caleb at the 4 and Sloth manning the middle. Other than Klay, we'd be starting 4 seniors. Now I will go ahead and mention that Tony will have forgotten more about basketball in the next five minutes than I'll ever learn in my lifetime, but I can't imagine this is going to be our starting five all season. I think a lot of this has to do with Fabian's back problems, as his hype alone is probably enough to start at the 3. I think Daven is better off in a Ricky Pierce role off the bench (sans GP feud). He can still score 20 in a game in a situational role, and I think him coming off the bench would be ideal. Although if Boeke can't play this year, it doesn't leave us with much choice.

Another player I loved coming off the bench last season was Caleb. His defensive intensity and situational rebounding was key in our run last season. I'd love to see one of the kids start, either Watson or Casto (Watson is outrebounding Castro in the pic). Both look to be able to rebound in the Pac-10 NOW, and Casto's jumper in preps was good to 18 feet (I don't believe Oklahoma exists in the union, so I'm unfamiliar with Watson's high school days). Perhaps Tony doesn't think either of them could defend a Jon Brockman or Taj Gibson yet; maybe they'll be ready by Pac-10 play. My beer gut thinks Caleb is better for the Cougars in spurts off the bench.

Anyway, my ideal starting-5 (if all are healthy) is

1 Rochestie

2 Thompson

3 Boeke

4 Watson/Casto

5 Baynes

reserves: Daven, Nik, Casto/Watson, Caleb, Capers and possibly Enquist.

I need to work on getting nicknames for everyone...