Let’s talk about Missed Layups in a Rout!!!

After re-watching this game this morning it is pretty clear that Aron Baynes lacks the necessary skills that an Honorable Mention all-Pac 10 player would have. Going 8-9 from the floor and thoroughly dominating Oregon's inside game, I'm sure it was the missed shot that the voters noticed.

We didn't make a single 3-pointer and won by 22 points.

I remember all 3 of Nik's missed layups last night, but while re-watching this game, I can't believe we missed so many other layups too. As Weak mentioned last night, the only guy on our team who doesn't miss layups is Casto….because he's never taken one.

Random thoughts during the game:

Barry Tompkins facepalm of the 1^st half: "I really think Oregon was a better team when Aaron Brooks was playing." I admire his ability to throw himself out there like that. I'm sure there will be more.

When was the last time Portland State was the last Oregon school standing?

I see that Tulalip Casino has decided to use the tournament to debut their new commercial, entitiled "We no longer rhyme 'fun, fun, fun' with 'fun' anymore!"

Taylor scored 4 points on 1-5 shooting and we won by 22 points.

Taylor and Klay combined for 12 points and we won by 22 points.

Capers hit his first jump shot since the Huskies won the title….in 1953.

Are steals a subjective stat now? The box score shows Nik with zero steals tonight and I just clearly watched him intercept a pass into the post. Must've been a team steal…because you know Nik can't do anything right on his own…

Capers missed his first jump shot since the Huskies won the title…in 2009. And Tompkins called him Marcel.

At the 12 minute mark into the first half, Tajuan Porter now has made more shots with a foot on the Tournament logo at mid court than his shots from realistic ranges.

Wait, wait, wait….the Pac-10 Scholar Athlete of the Year had a 3.37 GPA? Just how far is Master P's kid dragging the curve down?

Whoever the c omedian was who said "Wayne Brady makes Bryant Gumbel look like Malcom X" hasn't seen much of Michael Eaves.

Ryan Bailey is out of his warm-ups with 18 minutes left in the game….

Thoughts and prayers go out to the family of Francis Williams, who apparently was eaten by Todd MacCullough.

Plus/Minus for the Game:

Koprivica	+28
Rochestie	+22
Thompson	+22
Baynes	+18
Forrest	+18
Casto	-10
Capers	-24
Harthun	-24
Lodwick	-24
Enquist	-24
Witherill	-24

Per 40 for the Season

Capers	+7.73
Koprivica	+6.64
Forrest	+4.31
Thompson	+3.49
Rochestie	+0.98
Baynes	+0.94
Casto	-2.08
Harmeling	-8.42

Plus/Minus vs Arizona State

Koprivica +18
Casto +14
Thompson +12
Rochestie +10
Baynes +2
Harmeling  -6
Forrest -8
Harthun -22

Pretty glaring numbers that the game changed in the 2nd half when Casto and Nik were put into the game to guard their shooters.  Also, Harthun's six minutes of fury included two turnovers, an airball and getting dunked on by a dude we weren't sure could actually dunk.  Let's hope we can look back on this performance in 3 years and laugh.

This game gets Casto back to positive numbers for the year...and Baynes and Rochestie are so close to erasing his performance in the UW debacle.

Pac-10 Season to date (per 40)
Capers    +21.9
Harmeling +6.0
Casto +3.1
Koprivica +3.0
Baynes -0.3
Rochestie -1.8
Thompson -2.0
Forrest -5.3
Lodwick -22.3

So just based on how the team collectively does while you're on the court as opposed to when you're off the court, our best lineup is Capers and Koprivica at the guards, Harmeling and Casto at the forwards and Baynes manning the middle.  Would that lineup fare any better than the starting lineup we have now?

Whither Koprivica?

A couple years ago when Nik was a freshman, I came up with the nickname "Drunken Master" for him, referring to an old Chinese fighting style where your opponent appears to be stumbling, off-balance and out of control to lure you into a false sense of security, then that dude who is actually in complete control gives you a swift roundhouse to the face.

That was Nik's style when he had the ball; incredibly reckless, yet completely in control.  There were some drives he had against UW in 2007 that made us think we had something incredibly special for the next two years....

So then his leg falls off, yadda yadda, you know the rest of the story...now he's back and something seems a bit "off" offensively.  I don't think he's lost a step from his injury, as he's able to keep up on the defensive end as well as anyone in the conference, and we've seen flashes of brilliance this season (the Stanford game comes to mind:  Nik had two of the prettiest baseline deke's I've seen this year, leaving his defender's shoes around the 3-point line.  The problem was a Cardinal defender would position himself under the hoop, not allowing Nik to land and he was tacked with two of the most egregious charge calls I've ever seen...and the fact that they called it twice speaks volumes.  Nik picks up two quick fouls, goes to the bench, and we don't see that move again for the rest of the game.)  Are teams keen on his deceptive game now, and they now just give him enough rope to hang himself?  Will he be able to adjust?

The genesis of this rant came from watching the USC game from the rafters... Coug Nation is fed up with Nik;  and I'm still not sure why.  He's still one of the best match up-defenders on the team, if not the best (the job he did on Josh Shipp in the 2nd half of the UCLA game was nothing short of masterful, and his work on Kuksiks on Thursday night was completely overshadowed by Casto's big night....which might bring me to my next point).

Anyway, at the USC game, Nik checks in for the first time since putting up solid minutes against the Bruins and plays pretty quietly for about 3-4 minutes, then commits a turnover.  Boo-birds.  At home.  I don't really mind it when people boo, nor do I care when people get on players on message boards, etc., as long as it's warranted.  Nik committed one turnover and got booed.  Meanwhile, Casto was absolutely used by Dragovich on Thursday and used even harder by Gibson Saturday and leaves to standing ovations both times.

I guess that wrapping up my rant will just say this:  cut Nik some fucking slack.  He'll figure it out.  My original thoughts on this were why Coug Nation was so down on Koprivica, yet had turned Casto into a folk hero, when in essence they were the same player: both are sensational situational defenders (and can get torched in other situations), both are turnover prone, yet can show a flash of offensive brilliance, and both can make you gasp at least once a game (both good and bad).

Then it dawned on me:  Casto is the 2009 incarnation of Nik: the freshman phenom to come from out of nowhere that we overlook their glaring weaknesses and simply embrace everything that is awesome about them.  So now I have to come up with a fighting style for D'Angelo now.

PS: Again, cut Nik some fucking slack!

Back from Pullman

So after proving that both myself and Paul Wulff are indeed vampires and can't take a decent picture, I headed home, tail between my legs after watching what might have been the worst game since the dawn of competitive hoop.

Watching Casto get absolutely used by Dragovich and then Gibson in back to back games made me wonder if he had switched jerseys with Daven; as amazing as Caleb's shot was falling on Thursday, the catalyst for the comeback was Nik's defense and will forever be unappreciated, and I still continue to ask myself why Tony feels Abe Lodwick is ready for regular minutes.

I've been playing with a full-time job, grad school and a trip to Pullman, so I haven't posted the +/- for the past 3 games; all apologies, here we go:

@ Oregon

Capers +22
Rochestie +16
Thompson +16
Baynes +10
Casto +4
Koprivica -6
Forrest -10
Harmeling -14
Lodwick -20

vs. UCLA
Koprivica +14
Forrest +10
Baynes +4
Lodwick 0
Thompson -4
Rochestie -6
Capers -6
Casto -16

vs. USC
Capers +14
Baynes +8
Harmeling +6
Koprivica +2
Forrest -4
Lodwick -4
Rochestie -6
Thompson -6
Casto -12

Season Totals (per 40 mins)

Capers +21.9
Harmeling +9.5
Baynes -0.7
Casto -1.5
Koprivica -2.9
Rochestie -3.5
Forrest -4.2
Thompson -4.2
Lodwick -22.3

Nerd Science through Non-Con

Time to panic?

Here is an updated win-score (adjusted for pace and minutes played). For those unfamiliar with Win Score, it's essentially a combination of every stat imaginable up to, but not including who can Drunken Master themselves all the way to the rim before dribbling the ball off their neck (Hi, Nikola!)

For those still unconvinced Rochestie's NASDAQ has dropped in a big way, note that he not only led our team in Win Score last year (with Low, Weaver and Robbie on the team) but it was more than double the number it is now (Taylor finished the season a shade above 19 last season)

I've adjusted these number for pace and minutes played. In the NBA, Hollinger considers a 15 to be an AVERAGE player. We're having some trouble here, fellas....

Aron Baynes 18.33
Klay Thompson 13.87
Nikola Koprivica 12.76
Marcus Capers 12.33
Taylor Rochestie 9.89
DeAngelo Casto 9.36
Daven Harmeling 9.06
Charlie Enquist 7.47
Caleb Forrest 7.08
Abe Lodwick -0.51

Starting 5 thoughts

During the WSU scrimmage today, Coach Tony mentioned the starting five for the Cougs would likely be McLovin at the 1, Klay at the 2, Daven at the 3, Caleb at the 4 and Sloth manning the middle. Other than Klay, we'd be starting 4 seniors. Now I will go ahead and mention that Tony will have forgotten more about basketball in the next five minutes than I'll ever learn in my lifetime, but I can't imagine this is going to be our starting five all season. I think a lot of this has to do with Fabian's back problems, as his hype alone is probably enough to start at the 3. I think Daven is better off in a Ricky Pierce role off the bench (sans GP feud). He can still score 20 in a game in a situational role, and I think him coming off the bench would be ideal. Although if Boeke can't play this year, it doesn't leave us with much choice.

Another player I loved coming off the bench last season was Caleb. His defensive intensity and situational rebounding was key in our run last season. I'd love to see one of the kids start, either Watson or Casto (Watson is outrebounding Castro in the pic). Both look to be able to rebound in the Pac-10 NOW, and Casto's jumper in preps was good to 18 feet (I don't believe Oklahoma exists in the union, so I'm unfamiliar with Watson's high school days). Perhaps Tony doesn't think either of them could defend a Jon Brockman or Taj Gibson yet; maybe they'll be ready by Pac-10 play. My beer gut thinks Caleb is better for the Cougars in spurts off the bench.

Anyway, my ideal starting-5 (if all are healthy) is

1 Rochestie

2 Thompson

3 Boeke

4 Watson/Casto

5 Baynes

reserves: Daven, Nik, Casto/Watson, Caleb, Capers and possibly Enquist.

I need to work on getting nicknames for everyone...