Plus/Minus vs Arizona State

Koprivica +18
Casto +14
Thompson +12
Rochestie +10
Baynes +2
Harmeling  -6
Forrest -8
Harthun -22

Pretty glaring numbers that the game changed in the 2nd half when Casto and Nik were put into the game to guard their shooters.  Also, Harthun's six minutes of fury included two turnovers, an airball and getting dunked on by a dude we weren't sure could actually dunk.  Let's hope we can look back on this performance in 3 years and laugh.

This game gets Casto back to positive numbers for the year...and Baynes and Rochestie are so close to erasing his performance in the UW debacle.

Pac-10 Season to date (per 40)
Capers    +21.9
Harmeling +6.0
Casto +3.1
Koprivica +3.0
Baynes -0.3
Rochestie -1.8
Thompson -2.0
Forrest -5.3
Lodwick -22.3

So just based on how the team collectively does while you're on the court as opposed to when you're off the court, our best lineup is Capers and Koprivica at the guards, Harmeling and Casto at the forwards and Baynes manning the middle.  Would that lineup fare any better than the starting lineup we have now?

Yes We Can!!!

Well, first the happy +/- totals are in order. We're slowly starting to get back to respectable numbers after the UW debacle

Against OSU:

Harmeling +22
Forrest +8
Capers +6
Rochestie +4
Baynes +2
Enquist -4
Casto -6
Koprivica -12
Thompson -14

And for Pac-10 Play (minimum 3 games):

Capers +8.5
Harmeling +8
Casto +5
Lodwick 0
Forrest -4
Koprivica -4.5
Baynes -7
Rochestie -7
Thompson -8

I've been reading the Coug blogs and message boards, and there's been one huge point that I've been wanting to dispell but have just been too lazy. Here's what I have contention with:

Myth: we weren’t feeding Baynes enough.
Fact: At times, that was all we were doing. Several possessions in the 2nd half were spent with four wings hanging out around the 3 point line waiting for the double team on Baynes to wear off. Do this for me the next time you’re watching a Coug game this year and are asking “Why aren’t we passing it to Baynes?”, try asking “What are the wings doing to get Baynes open?” instead. Baynes doesn’t miss his touches because “we’re not feeding the beast enough”, he misses his touches because we’re trying to hard to be lazy (if that makes sense) by doing nothing BUT “feed the beast”. Now let us please put this argument to rest…

The more and more I watch him, the less and less I want Klay Thompson in the backcourt. He’s a Small Forward, albeit a skinny one. Watching him try to break Oregon State’s (lazy) press was a nightmare, and it was obvious Craig Robinson watched the film from the Gonzaga game over and over. Teams will beat us if they press us when Thompson is the 2-guard.

Speaking of beating the press, while I’m not thrilled with our execution against the half-court trap, I think the Cougs did a much better job of setting up the early offense and getting good looks while OSU was setting up their Defense after the broken press. During the Gonzaga game, we seemed to consider it a victory to get the ball past halfcourt, leading to poor shot selection. When we make the defense pay for pressing, it leads to the 70% FG percentage we had in the first half.

Making the case for Daven: I noted above that Daven had our highest +/- total in a Pac-10 game so far this season with a +22. While Daven has been Coug Nation’s whipping boy (most of it deservedly), Harmeling really matches up well with a team like the Beavs (ie: a team with Forwards that would rather shoot jumpers than put the ball on the floor.) BH (Before Harmeling), we couldn’t pay Deane any amount of money to keep him off the offensive glass. AH, Deane was boxed out every shot, and while Harmeling didn’t get the board, Deane didn’t either. With about 8 minutes left in the first half, Enquist comes in for Harmeling, and the Beavs start dominating the offensive glass again. For all of Daven’s shooting struggles, and for all the crap I’ve given him for getting shook when isolated, I will be the first to point out that Daven’s contributions to this victory will never show up on a stat sheet, but we would not have won last night without him.

Rochestie played 45 minutes last night, and has 39 hours to rest before probably having to run another 38 minutes Saturday morning. This was coming from a Taylor that was already getting routinely beaten off the dribble by Claitt and Wallace, and now gets even quicker guards tomorrow. That doesn’t sit well with me.

Next up are the Ducks, who figure to still be a must-win, as I think we're going to be very lucky to get 2 wins out of the six games that follow. Color me nervous.

Sky Falling, in search of Shami Gil for offense...

Since I didn't see the game, my opinions will be limited, but seems like same-ol-same-ol.... We continue to allow 3 pointers to rain on us to depressing levels, we continue to miss layups, and we continue to lose at home. That's now four in a row (!!!). Bud Namek isn't nearly as unlistenable as he used to be; I'm pretty sure his signature call has always been arguing about a foul that wasn't called at such length, he missed Oregon hitting a game-winning 3 against us.

He seemed to call at least 5 or 6 "3's" from the Cougs, when we actually had a foot on the line. If those were all 3's we may have won? I'm grasping at straws, this is killing me.

Anyway, the Plus/Minus for the game:

Lodwick +5
Capers +2
Baynes -2
Forrest -3
Harmeling -4
Casto -5
Thompson -7
Koprivica -10
Rochestie -12

And so far, for Pac-10 Play:

Lodwick +5
Capers -1.5
Harthun -4
Harmeling -5
Casto -5
Forrest -9
Thompson -10.5
Koprivica -10.5
Baynes -12
Rochestie -15

Take it for what it's worth, but so far in this young Pac-10 season, we'd be at our best (statistically speaking) when Abe Lodwick, Marcus Capers, Mike Harthun, Daven Harmeling and DeAngelo Casto are on the floor....and even then we pretty much suck.

The shots have got to start falling eventually....right?

Nerd Science through Non-Con

Time to panic?

Here is an updated win-score (adjusted for pace and minutes played). For those unfamiliar with Win Score, it's essentially a combination of every stat imaginable up to, but not including who can Drunken Master themselves all the way to the rim before dribbling the ball off their neck (Hi, Nikola!)

For those still unconvinced Rochestie's NASDAQ has dropped in a big way, note that he not only led our team in Win Score last year (with Low, Weaver and Robbie on the team) but it was more than double the number it is now (Taylor finished the season a shade above 19 last season)

I've adjusted these number for pace and minutes played. In the NBA, Hollinger considers a 15 to be an AVERAGE player. We're having some trouble here, fellas....

Aron Baynes 18.33
Klay Thompson 13.87
Nikola Koprivica 12.76
Marcus Capers 12.33
Taylor Rochestie 9.89
DeAngelo Casto 9.36
Daven Harmeling 9.06
Charlie Enquist 7.47
Caleb Forrest 7.08
Abe Lodwick -0.51

I'm Idaho (State)!

So after watching Taylor and company get thoroughly dominated by a team of All-Americans on Saturday, it was refreshing to watch us come in and beat on the Little Sisters of the Poor for a night. CORRECTION: We actually played the Little Sisters of the Poor minus their four-year starting Point Guard. Matt Stucki was at home having a baby. Upon further inspection, did you know in the dream season, we only beat this team by 6? I was pretty shocked, too. On the plus side, it was nice to pull the starters up 28 points and play the freshmen for the last 7 minutes. We even had a Dolph sighting for a few minutes!

For those who care, here were the plus/minus on the evening. You'll notice the starters all have incredible numbers and the freshmen didn't do so hot against the ISU starters.

Rochestie +28
Baynes +24
Harmeling +24
Koprivica +21
Thompson +20
Casto +4
Forrest +2
Capers +1
Witherill -2
Boeke -3
Enquist -6
Harthun -9
Lodwick -9

Outside of the box sccore, I was really impressed with Baynes, and have been all season. His weight loss is really helping the team on the offensive end. There were large stretches last season when our offense would set up in mover/blocker and Baynes would just camp out in the key hoping for an opening. This sesason, he (along with Casto) are really getting into setting BIG picks for the wings, which is why Daven and Klay had so many wide open shots. Then in the 2nd half when ISU switched to a zone, he was able to stay off the blocks long enough to spread the defense out and we were able to penetrate because of it. Game ball, Sloth. You earned it.

This was FSN's first Coug game of the season, and may I be the first person to say how refreshing it is to enjoy college hoops without Brian Davis fucking it up. Oh, and his Thunder lost again tonight.

Ehlo only had one Facepalm tonight, this time essentially making up a Superhero Origins story from just reading the roster: "You gotta realize he's left handed, and Coach Bennett's left-handed and he was a point guard who was left handed, and that's why Taylor's out there so much..." Getting no reaction from Todd Mansfield, Ehlo elaborated his Southpaw-Cult theory in the 2nd half by telling us the only reason Capers was recruited at all was because he's also left-handed.

Looking forward to what he says about Baylor on Saturday....

Starting 5 thoughts

During the WSU scrimmage today, Coach Tony mentioned the starting five for the Cougs would likely be McLovin at the 1, Klay at the 2, Daven at the 3, Caleb at the 4 and Sloth manning the middle. Other than Klay, we'd be starting 4 seniors. Now I will go ahead and mention that Tony will have forgotten more about basketball in the next five minutes than I'll ever learn in my lifetime, but I can't imagine this is going to be our starting five all season. I think a lot of this has to do with Fabian's back problems, as his hype alone is probably enough to start at the 3. I think Daven is better off in a Ricky Pierce role off the bench (sans GP feud). He can still score 20 in a game in a situational role, and I think him coming off the bench would be ideal. Although if Boeke can't play this year, it doesn't leave us with much choice.

Another player I loved coming off the bench last season was Caleb. His defensive intensity and situational rebounding was key in our run last season. I'd love to see one of the kids start, either Watson or Casto (Watson is outrebounding Castro in the pic). Both look to be able to rebound in the Pac-10 NOW, and Casto's jumper in preps was good to 18 feet (I don't believe Oklahoma exists in the union, so I'm unfamiliar with Watson's high school days). Perhaps Tony doesn't think either of them could defend a Jon Brockman or Taj Gibson yet; maybe they'll be ready by Pac-10 play. My beer gut thinks Caleb is better for the Cougars in spurts off the bench.

Anyway, my ideal starting-5 (if all are healthy) is

1 Rochestie

2 Thompson

3 Boeke

4 Watson/Casto

5 Baynes

reserves: Daven, Nik, Casto/Watson, Caleb, Capers and possibly Enquist.

I need to work on getting nicknames for everyone...

Media Predictions, McLovin and the rest of the Pac's Points.

So I've been reading through the various pre-season mags and the general consensus is that the Cougs will fall to the bottom half of the league. Seeing as there are going to be seven new players on the team this season, I'm actually pretty thrilled with this. While I think several Freshmen are going to step up this season (Klay will likely start at the 2 or 3 and I'd like to see what Watson or Casto can do at the 4), this is no doubt McLovin's team.

Rochestie is not only the returning floor leader, he's the returning statistical leader, bringing in a Hollinger Rating of 10.4 last season and calculating his "Win Score", Taylor was worth 10.4 wins (as a comparison, Weaver was worth 9.5 wins last season).

I'll go through who I think is going to help the Cougs get back to the tourney this year, but wanted to start this thing off making this clear: This team is getting nowhere without a productive McLovin. Capers looks like he will be a solid player eventually, but I don't see him playing more than 8 minutes or so because Rochestie needs to be on the court 36 minutes a game in order for us to have a shot this season.

In other news, water is wet.

While the Pac-10 had what was likely its most dominant season ever, I think the starting Point Guards are an even better crop than last year. While I think Taylor matters more to his team than the others, here's how I'd rank them.

1. Darren Collison, UCLA (6-0 SR,14.5 ppg, 3.8 apg, 1.9 spg)
2. Daniel Hackett, USC (6-5 JR, 8.6 ppg, 3.2 apg, 1.1 spg)
3. Taylor Rochestie, WSU (6-1 SR, 10.4 ppg, 4.7 apg, 1.0 spg)
4. Nic Wise, Arizona (5-10 JR, 9.2 ppg, 4.4 apg, 2.0 spg)
5. Derek Glasser, ASU (6-1 JR, 6.1 ppg, 3.9 apg, .8 spg)
6. Jerome Randle, Cal (5-10 JR, 11.8 ppg, 3.7 apg)
7. Kamyron Brown, Ore (6-2 SO, 4.2 ppg, 3.1 apg)
8. Mitch Johnson, Stan (6-1 SR, 6.7 ppg, 5.2 apg)
9. Josh Tarver, OSU (6-3 JR, 6.7 ppg, 2.4 apg, 1.2 spg)
10. Isaiah Thomas, UW (5-8 FR, I'm not fucking listing High School stats)

Pretty impressive list, no? The Collison and Hackett are likely first round draft picks, McLovin and Wise will vie for all Pac-10 honors, Glasser and Brown both had stellar numbers in limited minutes, and Tarver is one of the better perimiter defenders in the league. I rated Randle and Johnson a little lower than I might have if they weren't running new offenses this season. Thomas is finally in college after going to prep school for two years... highly touted but undersized and doesn't have anywhere near the experience of the other PGs.