Hide Your Daughters, Empty Arena!

19%


81%

Game Projection	Pts
Washington St.	56.8
UCLA	68.0

Projected High-Scorer Josh Shipp (UCLA) 15.2 pts

AccuScore Live Betting Predictions

Point Spread	AccuScore Probability
Washington State +8.5	41.4%
UCLA -8.5	58.8%

Over / Under	AccuScore Probability
OVR 122	55.3%
UND 122	43.0%

Money Line					AccuScore Probability
Washington State +360					19.2%%
UCLA -410					80.9%%
Team	Win Percent	Average Score	Big Win	Close Win
Washington St.	19.2%	56.8	6.1%	7.7%
UCLA	80.9%	68	55.9%	10.3%

* Big Win: 10 or more pts; Close Win: 4 or less pts

Plus/Minus for our two previous games vs. the Bruins:

	+/-	minutes
Baynes	+29	60
Koprivica	+23	37
Forrest	+11	58
Lodwick	0	5
Thompson	-3	77
Rochestie	-5	78
Harmeling	-7	6
Casto	-11	32
Enquist	-11	3
Capers	-29	44

A lot was mentioned about Taylor's 33 points the last time we played UCLA, but a bigger story was that we were KILLING the Bruins with Baynes on the court and in turn, getting killed when he was on the bench. It's IMPERATIVE we get 35 minutes from Sloth to have any sort of chance tonight to keep moving on in this thing….

Hide your Daughters, cont'd

So I'm beginning to think that this afternoon might be one of those games that really tries a Coug's soul. For reference, see the 2008 Cougar football season....We have 4 games left....against the four best teams in the Pac-10. I'm trying to find a W in that mix. Kind of a sinking feeling to know we're going to finish 9th in both football and hoops.

Anyway, vs. the Trojans

Koprivica	22
Harthun	10
Capers	8
Lodwick	8
Forrest	2
Baynes	0
Casto	0
Rochestie	-10
Harmeling	-16
Thompson	-24

If we're looking at positives here, it's pretty impressive that we were able to keep it as close as we did when Thompson is having an off night. In the first half, Baynes missed a dunk and two 2-footers. He makes those and we're down 2 instead of 8 going into halftime and it's a completely different ballgame (one we had no business being in). Casto was night and day. In his first 6 quarters against Taj, DC looked lost and Taj was going to continue to do whatever he wanted. However, in that second half, D'Angelo still had some slipups on the defensive end of the floor (but some of those can be attributed to his teammates), he put together some fantastic post moves against one of the better interior defenders in the conference. Where the hell did those come from?

Looking ahead to our carnage at noon, here's how we looked the last time we played the Bruins:

	"+ / -"	minutes
Koprivica	+14	13
Forrest	+10	31
Baynes	+4	34
Lodwick	0	2
Thompson	-4	37
Rochestie	-6	38
Capers	-6	27
Casto	-16	15

We're probably not going to get another superhuman effort from Forrest, yet they're probably not going to get another superhuman effort from Drago either. Klay's gotta be huge this afternoon to keep this close, and Baynes has to take advantage of UCLA's lack of size early.

If I were Coach Sexy, I'd roll out a lineup with Taylor, Marcus and Nik on the wings and Caleb and Baynes down low. I'd have D'Angelo on a very short leash based on his defensive inadequacies against UCLA's ball rotation last time around.

Harmeling can stay on the bench again.

Hide your Daughters, Corvallis

AccuScore Winning Percentage (Based on over 10,000 simulations)

21.5% 78.5%

Game Projection	Pts
Oregon St.	50.3
Washington St.	59.7

Projected High-Scorer Aron Baynes (WAST) 14.4 pts

Point Spread AccuScore Probability Oregon State +12 58.3% Washington State -12 38.7% Over / Under AccuScore Probability OVR 106 63.1% UND 106 35.2% Money Line AccuScore Probability Oregon State +620 21.5%% Washington State -800 78.5%%

Team	Win Percent	Average Score	Big Win	Close Win
Oregon St.	21.5%	50.3	5.4%	10.8%
Washington St.	78.5%	59.7	48.4%	13.4%

Everything for today points to our 6^th consecutive victory over the Beavs, despite the Obama/Conan power OSU brings to the table. Beating OSU in overtime on the road, here was our most efficient lineup:

	"+ / -"	minutes
Harmeling	+22	24
Forrest	+8	34
Capers	+6	20
Rochestie	+4	45
Baynes	+2	35

Obviously Capers isn’t going to play the SG, and Klay is unconscious as of late, hopefully he can handle the halfcourt trap better than the last time we played OS(U) (Klay finished with a -12, despite 5-10 shooting and 5 assists….4 turnovers didn’t help). With Baynes’ knee, 35 minutes may be too much to ask….Casto was pretty awful against the Beavs the first time around, but will the home crowd bring him back? Oregon State kept this thing close with second chance points, particularly in the first half, when Forrest and Witherill were trying to box out Deane and Tarver. Harmeling and Capers both were able to neutralize this last time, but will need everyone to do it against a team with a lot more confidence than the last time we played them.

Beat the halfcourt trap, knock down your shots over the zone and BOX THE HELL OUT; this game’s over by halftime.

Media Predictions, McLovin and the rest of the Pac's Points.

So I've been reading through the various pre-season mags and the general consensus is that the Cougs will fall to the bottom half of the league. Seeing as there are going to be seven new players on the team this season, I'm actually pretty thrilled with this. While I think several Freshmen are going to step up this season (Klay will likely start at the 2 or 3 and I'd like to see what Watson or Casto can do at the 4), this is no doubt McLovin's team.

Rochestie is not only the returning floor leader, he's the returning statistical leader, bringing in a Hollinger Rating of 10.4 last season and calculating his "Win Score", Taylor was worth 10.4 wins (as a comparison, Weaver was worth 9.5 wins last season).

I'll go through who I think is going to help the Cougs get back to the tourney this year, but wanted to start this thing off making this clear: This team is getting nowhere without a productive McLovin. Capers looks like he will be a solid player eventually, but I don't see him playing more than 8 minutes or so because Rochestie needs to be on the court 36 minutes a game in order for us to have a shot this season.

In other news, water is wet.

While the Pac-10 had what was likely its most dominant season ever, I think the starting Point Guards are an even better crop than last year. While I think Taylor matters more to his team than the others, here's how I'd rank them.

1. Darren Collison, UCLA (6-0 SR,14.5 ppg, 3.8 apg, 1.9 spg)
2. Daniel Hackett, USC (6-5 JR, 8.6 ppg, 3.2 apg, 1.1 spg)
3. Taylor Rochestie, WSU (6-1 SR, 10.4 ppg, 4.7 apg, 1.0 spg)
4. Nic Wise, Arizona (5-10 JR, 9.2 ppg, 4.4 apg, 2.0 spg)
5. Derek Glasser, ASU (6-1 JR, 6.1 ppg, 3.9 apg, .8 spg)
6. Jerome Randle, Cal (5-10 JR, 11.8 ppg, 3.7 apg)
7. Kamyron Brown, Ore (6-2 SO, 4.2 ppg, 3.1 apg)
8. Mitch Johnson, Stan (6-1 SR, 6.7 ppg, 5.2 apg)
9. Josh Tarver, OSU (6-3 JR, 6.7 ppg, 2.4 apg, 1.2 spg)
10. Isaiah Thomas, UW (5-8 FR, I'm not fucking listing High School stats)

Pretty impressive list, no? The Collison and Hackett are likely first round draft picks, McLovin and Wise will vie for all Pac-10 honors, Glasser and Brown both had stellar numbers in limited minutes, and Tarver is one of the better perimiter defenders in the league. I rated Randle and Johnson a little lower than I might have if they weren't running new offenses this season. Thomas is finally in college after going to prep school for two years... highly touted but undersized and doesn't have anywhere near the experience of the other PGs.