Showing posts with label Oregon State Beavers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oregon State Beavers. Show all posts

Thursday, February 19, 2009

Choke.

All apologies, finished up my finals this week. I should be getting updates up more frequently from here out, my next class doesn’t start until March Madness, which as we have learned last Saturday, our chances are between none and stop making me laugh…

Plus/Minus against the Beavs

Forrest

+22

Capers

+12

Harthun

+4

Baynes

+2

Thompson

-4

Rochestie

-6

Koprivica

-8

Harmeling

-12

Casto

-12

And now the numbers for the season (per 40 minutes):

Capers

17.8

Casto

4.4

Koprivica

2.6

Thompson

1.9

Forrest

1.0

Harmeling

-0.4

Rochestie

-0.5

Baynes

-3.9

Lodwick

-27.5

Harthun

-82.7






Saturday, February 14, 2009

Hide your Daughters, Corvallis

AccuScore Winning Percentage (Based on over 10,000 simulations)





21.5% 78.5%


Game Projection

Pts

Oregon St.

50.3

Washington St.

59.7

Projected High-Scorer

Aron Baynes (WAST) 14.4 pts

Point Spread

AccuScore Probability


Oregon State +12

58.3%

Washington State -12

38.7%


Over / Under

AccuScore Probability


OVR 106

63.1%

UND 106

35.2%


Money Line

AccuScore Probability


Oregon State +620

21.5%%

Washington State -800

78.5%%


Team

Win Percent

Average Score

Big Win

Close Win

Oregon St.

21.5%

50.3

5.4%

10.8%

Washington St.

78.5%

59.7

48.4%

13.4%

Everything for today points to our 6th consecutive victory over the Beavs, despite the Obama/Conan power OSU brings to the table. Beating OSU in overtime on the road, here was our most efficient lineup:


"+ / -"

minutes

Harmeling

+22

24

Forrest

+8

34

Capers

+6

20

Rochestie

+4

45

Baynes

+2

35




Obviously Capers isn’t going to play the SG, and Klay is unconscious as of late, hopefully he can handle the halfcourt trap better than the last time we played OS(U) (Klay finished with a -12, despite 5-10 shooting and 5 assists….4 turnovers didn’t help). With Baynes’ knee, 35 minutes may be too much to ask….Casto was pretty awful against the Beavs the first time around, but will the home crowd bring him back? Oregon State kept this thing close with second chance points, particularly in the first half, when Forrest and Witherill were trying to box out Deane and Tarver. Harmeling and Capers both were able to neutralize this last time, but will need everyone to do it against a team with a lot more confidence than the last time we played them.

Beat the halfcourt trap, knock down your shots over the zone and BOX THE HELL OUT; this game’s over by halftime.


Friday, January 16, 2009

Yes We Can!!!

Well, first the happy +/- totals are in order. We're slowly starting to get back to respectable numbers after the UW debacle

Against OSU:
Harmeling +22
Forrest +8
Capers +6
Rochestie +4
Baynes +2
Enquist -4
Casto -6
Koprivica -12
Thompson -14

And for Pac-10 Play (minimum 3 games):

Capers +8.5
Harmeling +8
Casto +5
Lodwick 0
Forrest -4
Koprivica -4.5
Baynes -7
Rochestie -7
Thompson -8

I've been reading the Coug blogs and message boards, and there's been one huge point that I've been wanting to dispell but have just been too lazy. Here's what I have contention with:

Myth: we weren’t feeding Baynes enough.
Fact: At times, that was all we were doing. Several possessions in the 2nd half were spent with four wings hanging out around the 3 point line waiting for the double team on Baynes to wear off. Do this for me the next time you’re watching a Coug game this year and are asking “Why aren’t we passing it to Baynes?”, try asking “What are the wings doing to get Baynes open?” instead. Baynes doesn’t miss his touches because “we’re not feeding the beast enough”, he misses his touches because we’re trying to hard to be lazy (if that makes sense) by doing nothing BUT “feed the beast”. Now let us please put this argument to rest…

The more and more I watch him, the less and less I want Klay Thompson in the backcourt. He’s a Small Forward, albeit a skinny one. Watching him try to break Oregon State’s (lazy) press was a nightmare, and it was obvious Craig Robinson watched the film from the Gonzaga game over and over. Teams will beat us if they press us when Thompson is the 2-guard.

Speaking of beating the press, while I’m not thrilled with our execution against the half-court trap, I think the Cougs did a much better job of setting up the early offense and getting good looks while OSU was setting up their Defense after the broken press. During the Gonzaga game, we seemed to consider it a victory to get the ball past halfcourt, leading to poor shot selection. When we make the defense pay for pressing, it leads to the 70% FG percentage we had in the first half.

Making the case for Daven: I noted above that Daven had our highest +/- total in a Pac-10 game so far this season with a +22. While Daven has been Coug Nation’s whipping boy (most of it deservedly), Harmeling really matches up well with a team like the Beavs (ie: a team with Forwards that would rather shoot jumpers than put the ball on the floor.) BH (Before Harmeling), we couldn’t pay Deane any amount of money to keep him off the offensive glass. AH, Deane was boxed out every shot, and while Harmeling didn’t get the board, Deane didn’t either. With about 8 minutes left in the first half, Enquist comes in for Harmeling, and the Beavs start dominating the offensive glass again. For all of Daven’s shooting struggles, and for all the crap I’ve given him for getting shook when isolated, I will be the first to point out that Daven’s contributions to this victory will never show up on a stat sheet, but we would not have won last night without him.
Rochestie played 45 minutes last night, and has 39 hours to rest before probably having to run another 38 minutes Saturday morning. This was coming from a Taylor that was already getting routinely beaten off the dribble by Claitt and Wallace, and now gets even quicker guards tomorrow. That doesn’t sit well with me.

Next up are the Ducks, who figure to still be a must-win, as I think we're going to be very lucky to get 2 wins out of the six games that follow. Color me nervous.

Saturday, January 3, 2009

"Next on Wings....aw, who cares..." UCLA/Oregon State thoughts


More messages from Cash4Gold.com, TaxSlayer.com, and ShamWow on the FCS channels, which ended up being the most entertainng thing about this game.

I really don't know what to make out of UCLA at this point from this game alone, as I'm not sure Oregon State even had a gameplan. They run a 4-man bastardized version of the Princeton offense (we run a 3 man version of it for the most part) which relies on a lot of wing movement and slipping screens to get an open look at the hoop. Well, most of the time it ends up in a 2 man game where both those 2 man are grossly overmatched by their UCLA counterparts. I think some discipline and a full year in this offense, the Beavs might be ready to score 50 (!!!) a game... yeah, it doesn't look too promsing.

But where most people who run the Princeton offense make up for it in their defensive intensity, Robinson has them for the most part in various incarnations of the 1-3-1 zone. Most Pac teams will SHRED a 1-3-1. And since the Beavs aren't going to run with teams that will beat a 1-3-1, I have a lot of concerns of what their endgame is...
I wish I had more to say about UCLA. They looked impressive for the most part, but I'd like to see them against the Ducks before I make any definitive decisions about them. In non-con, Holiday looked ready to pick up where Westbrook left off, but Drew Gordon is not exactly the substitution I'd want for Kevin Love, Mbah-a M0ute AND the sexy Lorenzo Mata.