Nerd Science through Non-Con

Time to panic?

Here is an updated win-score (adjusted for pace and minutes played). For those unfamiliar with Win Score, it's essentially a combination of every stat imaginable up to, but not including who can Drunken Master themselves all the way to the rim before dribbling the ball off their neck (Hi, Nikola!)

For those still unconvinced Rochestie's NASDAQ has dropped in a big way, note that he not only led our team in Win Score last year (with Low, Weaver and Robbie on the team) but it was more than double the number it is now (Taylor finished the season a shade above 19 last season)

I've adjusted these number for pace and minutes played. In the NBA, Hollinger considers a 15 to be an AVERAGE player. We're having some trouble here, fellas....

Aron Baynes 18.33
Klay Thompson 13.87
Nikola Koprivica 12.76
Marcus Capers 12.33
Taylor Rochestie 9.89
DeAngelo Casto 9.36
Daven Harmeling 9.06
Charlie Enquist 7.47
Caleb Forrest 7.08
Abe Lodwick -0.51

Nerd Science through 7 games

Well, some signs of a young team are becoming more and more evident. We're averaging nearly EIGHT fewer possessions this season than we did last, which is pretty crazy...considering we were already one of the most methodical teams in the nation.

Anyway, here is Hollinger's Win Score for each team, unadjusted for 40 minutes..... (ie: how many wins each player is worth)

Aron Baynes 10.89
Klay Thompson 10.31
Taylor Rochestie 8.29
Daven Harmeling 6.06
Nikola Koprivica 5.93
Caleb Forrest 4.50
DeAngelo Casto 3.63
Charlie Enquist 2.46
Marcus Capers 1.59
Abe Lodwick-0.10

A few things jumped out at me when looking through the stats.

1.) We suck out loud at getting to the free throw line so far this season. Only Taylor and Sloth are averaging over one trip to the stripe, and both of them cleared that BARELY. Both of them need to be shooting at least 6 free throws per game.

2.) If Daven is going to be playing as many minutes as he is, he needs to be shooting MUCH more. As an example, so far he's played 60 total minutes more than Caleb, and he's only taken 4 shots more total. Daven's biggest attribute is not his defense, it's not his floor-accumen, it's not his rebounding, it's his J. If Coach Tony is going to keep giving him 25 minutes per game, he needs to be getting off more than a shot every 10 minutes. He was shooting nearly twice as much last year on a team with more weapons and playing 5 less minutes per game. Solution: STOP STARTING DAVEN AT THE FOUR. HE'S NOT A POWER FORWARD. HE'S A TALL JUMP-SHOOTER.

(ok, breathing now...)

3.) I'm going to say this one more time about our lineups: We've played one great team where we were smacked in the mouth and happened to stay in the game because we started off the game unconscious from the outside. When we start playing the more talented teams on a regular basis (ie: Saturday), we need to shift PT to players playing in their natural positions. Small-Ball is great....when you can run....and we can't run. So please, shift Daven back to the 3, Have him come off the bench for Nic, start Caleb at the 4 and get as many minutes as you can from Casto (who will likely spend the majority of the season in foul trouble), as you'll need Caleb to spell Sloth. I am looking forward to the day where Enquist gets put on the Cowgill 4,000 calorie diet.

Media Predictions, McLovin and the rest of the Pac's Points.

So I've been reading through the various pre-season mags and the general consensus is that the Cougs will fall to the bottom half of the league. Seeing as there are going to be seven new players on the team this season, I'm actually pretty thrilled with this. While I think several Freshmen are going to step up this season (Klay will likely start at the 2 or 3 and I'd like to see what Watson or Casto can do at the 4), this is no doubt McLovin's team.

Rochestie is not only the returning floor leader, he's the returning statistical leader, bringing in a Hollinger Rating of 10.4 last season and calculating his "Win Score", Taylor was worth 10.4 wins (as a comparison, Weaver was worth 9.5 wins last season).

I'll go through who I think is going to help the Cougs get back to the tourney this year, but wanted to start this thing off making this clear: This team is getting nowhere without a productive McLovin. Capers looks like he will be a solid player eventually, but I don't see him playing more than 8 minutes or so because Rochestie needs to be on the court 36 minutes a game in order for us to have a shot this season.

In other news, water is wet.

While the Pac-10 had what was likely its most dominant season ever, I think the starting Point Guards are an even better crop than last year. While I think Taylor matters more to his team than the others, here's how I'd rank them.

1. Darren Collison, UCLA (6-0 SR,14.5 ppg, 3.8 apg, 1.9 spg)
2. Daniel Hackett, USC (6-5 JR, 8.6 ppg, 3.2 apg, 1.1 spg)
3. Taylor Rochestie, WSU (6-1 SR, 10.4 ppg, 4.7 apg, 1.0 spg)
4. Nic Wise, Arizona (5-10 JR, 9.2 ppg, 4.4 apg, 2.0 spg)
5. Derek Glasser, ASU (6-1 JR, 6.1 ppg, 3.9 apg, .8 spg)
6. Jerome Randle, Cal (5-10 JR, 11.8 ppg, 3.7 apg)
7. Kamyron Brown, Ore (6-2 SO, 4.2 ppg, 3.1 apg)
8. Mitch Johnson, Stan (6-1 SR, 6.7 ppg, 5.2 apg)
9. Josh Tarver, OSU (6-3 JR, 6.7 ppg, 2.4 apg, 1.2 spg)
10. Isaiah Thomas, UW (5-8 FR, I'm not fucking listing High School stats)

Pretty impressive list, no? The Collison and Hackett are likely first round draft picks, McLovin and Wise will vie for all Pac-10 honors, Glasser and Brown both had stellar numbers in limited minutes, and Tarver is one of the better perimiter defenders in the league. I rated Randle and Johnson a little lower than I might have if they weren't running new offenses this season. Thomas is finally in college after going to prep school for two years... highly touted but undersized and doesn't have anywhere near the experience of the other PGs.