Yes We Can!!!

Well, first the happy +/- totals are in order. We're slowly starting to get back to respectable numbers after the UW debacle

Against OSU:

Harmeling +22
Forrest +8
Capers +6
Rochestie +4
Baynes +2
Enquist -4
Casto -6
Koprivica -12
Thompson -14

And for Pac-10 Play (minimum 3 games):

Capers +8.5
Harmeling +8
Casto +5
Lodwick 0
Forrest -4
Koprivica -4.5
Baynes -7
Rochestie -7
Thompson -8

I've been reading the Coug blogs and message boards, and there's been one huge point that I've been wanting to dispell but have just been too lazy. Here's what I have contention with:

Myth: we weren’t feeding Baynes enough.
Fact: At times, that was all we were doing. Several possessions in the 2nd half were spent with four wings hanging out around the 3 point line waiting for the double team on Baynes to wear off. Do this for me the next time you’re watching a Coug game this year and are asking “Why aren’t we passing it to Baynes?”, try asking “What are the wings doing to get Baynes open?” instead. Baynes doesn’t miss his touches because “we’re not feeding the beast enough”, he misses his touches because we’re trying to hard to be lazy (if that makes sense) by doing nothing BUT “feed the beast”. Now let us please put this argument to rest…

The more and more I watch him, the less and less I want Klay Thompson in the backcourt. He’s a Small Forward, albeit a skinny one. Watching him try to break Oregon State’s (lazy) press was a nightmare, and it was obvious Craig Robinson watched the film from the Gonzaga game over and over. Teams will beat us if they press us when Thompson is the 2-guard.

Speaking of beating the press, while I’m not thrilled with our execution against the half-court trap, I think the Cougs did a much better job of setting up the early offense and getting good looks while OSU was setting up their Defense after the broken press. During the Gonzaga game, we seemed to consider it a victory to get the ball past halfcourt, leading to poor shot selection. When we make the defense pay for pressing, it leads to the 70% FG percentage we had in the first half.

Making the case for Daven: I noted above that Daven had our highest +/- total in a Pac-10 game so far this season with a +22. While Daven has been Coug Nation’s whipping boy (most of it deservedly), Harmeling really matches up well with a team like the Beavs (ie: a team with Forwards that would rather shoot jumpers than put the ball on the floor.) BH (Before Harmeling), we couldn’t pay Deane any amount of money to keep him off the offensive glass. AH, Deane was boxed out every shot, and while Harmeling didn’t get the board, Deane didn’t either. With about 8 minutes left in the first half, Enquist comes in for Harmeling, and the Beavs start dominating the offensive glass again. For all of Daven’s shooting struggles, and for all the crap I’ve given him for getting shook when isolated, I will be the first to point out that Daven’s contributions to this victory will never show up on a stat sheet, but we would not have won last night without him.

Rochestie played 45 minutes last night, and has 39 hours to rest before probably having to run another 38 minutes Saturday morning. This was coming from a Taylor that was already getting routinely beaten off the dribble by Claitt and Wallace, and now gets even quicker guards tomorrow. That doesn’t sit well with me.

Next up are the Ducks, who figure to still be a must-win, as I think we're going to be very lucky to get 2 wins out of the six games that follow. Color me nervous.

Nerd Science through Non-Con

Time to panic?

Here is an updated win-score (adjusted for pace and minutes played). For those unfamiliar with Win Score, it's essentially a combination of every stat imaginable up to, but not including who can Drunken Master themselves all the way to the rim before dribbling the ball off their neck (Hi, Nikola!)

For those still unconvinced Rochestie's NASDAQ has dropped in a big way, note that he not only led our team in Win Score last year (with Low, Weaver and Robbie on the team) but it was more than double the number it is now (Taylor finished the season a shade above 19 last season)

I've adjusted these number for pace and minutes played. In the NBA, Hollinger considers a 15 to be an AVERAGE player. We're having some trouble here, fellas....

Aron Baynes 18.33
Klay Thompson 13.87
Nikola Koprivica 12.76
Marcus Capers 12.33
Taylor Rochestie 9.89
DeAngelo Casto 9.36
Daven Harmeling 9.06
Charlie Enquist 7.47
Caleb Forrest 7.08
Abe Lodwick -0.51

Nerd Science through 7 games

Well, some signs of a young team are becoming more and more evident. We're averaging nearly EIGHT fewer possessions this season than we did last, which is pretty crazy...considering we were already one of the most methodical teams in the nation.

Anyway, here is Hollinger's Win Score for each team, unadjusted for 40 minutes..... (ie: how many wins each player is worth)

Aron Baynes 10.89
Klay Thompson 10.31
Taylor Rochestie 8.29
Daven Harmeling 6.06
Nikola Koprivica 5.93
Caleb Forrest 4.50
DeAngelo Casto 3.63
Charlie Enquist 2.46
Marcus Capers 1.59
Abe Lodwick-0.10

A few things jumped out at me when looking through the stats.

1.) We suck out loud at getting to the free throw line so far this season. Only Taylor and Sloth are averaging over one trip to the stripe, and both of them cleared that BARELY. Both of them need to be shooting at least 6 free throws per game.

2.) If Daven is going to be playing as many minutes as he is, he needs to be shooting MUCH more. As an example, so far he's played 60 total minutes more than Caleb, and he's only taken 4 shots more total. Daven's biggest attribute is not his defense, it's not his floor-accumen, it's not his rebounding, it's his J. If Coach Tony is going to keep giving him 25 minutes per game, he needs to be getting off more than a shot every 10 minutes. He was shooting nearly twice as much last year on a team with more weapons and playing 5 less minutes per game. Solution: STOP STARTING DAVEN AT THE FOUR. HE'S NOT A POWER FORWARD. HE'S A TALL JUMP-SHOOTER.

(ok, breathing now...)

3.) I'm going to say this one more time about our lineups: We've played one great team where we were smacked in the mouth and happened to stay in the game because we started off the game unconscious from the outside. When we start playing the more talented teams on a regular basis (ie: Saturday), we need to shift PT to players playing in their natural positions. Small-Ball is great....when you can run....and we can't run. So please, shift Daven back to the 3, Have him come off the bench for Nic, start Caleb at the 4 and get as many minutes as you can from Casto (who will likely spend the majority of the season in foul trouble), as you'll need Caleb to spell Sloth. I am looking forward to the day where Enquist gets put on the Cowgill 4,000 calorie diet.

Starting 5 thoughts

During the WSU scrimmage today, Coach Tony mentioned the starting five for the Cougs would likely be McLovin at the 1, Klay at the 2, Daven at the 3, Caleb at the 4 and Sloth manning the middle. Other than Klay, we'd be starting 4 seniors. Now I will go ahead and mention that Tony will have forgotten more about basketball in the next five minutes than I'll ever learn in my lifetime, but I can't imagine this is going to be our starting five all season. I think a lot of this has to do with Fabian's back problems, as his hype alone is probably enough to start at the 3. I think Daven is better off in a Ricky Pierce role off the bench (sans GP feud). He can still score 20 in a game in a situational role, and I think him coming off the bench would be ideal. Although if Boeke can't play this year, it doesn't leave us with much choice.

Another player I loved coming off the bench last season was Caleb. His defensive intensity and situational rebounding was key in our run last season. I'd love to see one of the kids start, either Watson or Casto (Watson is outrebounding Castro in the pic). Both look to be able to rebound in the Pac-10 NOW, and Casto's jumper in preps was good to 18 feet (I don't believe Oklahoma exists in the union, so I'm unfamiliar with Watson's high school days). Perhaps Tony doesn't think either of them could defend a Jon Brockman or Taj Gibson yet; maybe they'll be ready by Pac-10 play. My beer gut thinks Caleb is better for the Cougars in spurts off the bench.

Anyway, my ideal starting-5 (if all are healthy) is

1 Rochestie

2 Thompson

3 Boeke

4 Watson/Casto

5 Baynes

reserves: Daven, Nik, Casto/Watson, Caleb, Capers and possibly Enquist.

I need to work on getting nicknames for everyone...