Back from Pullman

So after proving that both myself and Paul Wulff are indeed vampires and can't take a decent picture, I headed home, tail between my legs after watching what might have been the worst game since the dawn of competitive hoop.

Watching Casto get absolutely used by Dragovich and then Gibson in back to back games made me wonder if he had switched jerseys with Daven; as amazing as Caleb's shot was falling on Thursday, the catalyst for the comeback was Nik's defense and will forever be unappreciated, and I still continue to ask myself why Tony feels Abe Lodwick is ready for regular minutes.

I've been playing with a full-time job, grad school and a trip to Pullman, so I haven't posted the +/- for the past 3 games; all apologies, here we go:

@ Oregon

Capers +22
Rochestie +16
Thompson +16
Baynes +10
Casto +4
Koprivica -6
Forrest -10
Harmeling -14
Lodwick -20

vs. UCLA
Koprivica +14
Forrest +10
Baynes +4
Lodwick 0
Thompson -4
Rochestie -6
Capers -6
Casto -16

vs. USC
Capers +14
Baynes +8
Harmeling +6
Koprivica +2
Forrest -4
Lodwick -4
Rochestie -6
Thompson -6
Casto -12

Season Totals (per 40 mins)

Capers +21.9
Harmeling +9.5
Baynes -0.7
Casto -1.5
Koprivica -2.9
Rochestie -3.5
Forrest -4.2
Thompson -4.2
Lodwick -22.3

Nerd Science through Non-Con

Time to panic?

Here is an updated win-score (adjusted for pace and minutes played). For those unfamiliar with Win Score, it's essentially a combination of every stat imaginable up to, but not including who can Drunken Master themselves all the way to the rim before dribbling the ball off their neck (Hi, Nikola!)

For those still unconvinced Rochestie's NASDAQ has dropped in a big way, note that he not only led our team in Win Score last year (with Low, Weaver and Robbie on the team) but it was more than double the number it is now (Taylor finished the season a shade above 19 last season)

I've adjusted these number for pace and minutes played. In the NBA, Hollinger considers a 15 to be an AVERAGE player. We're having some trouble here, fellas....

Aron Baynes 18.33
Klay Thompson 13.87
Nikola Koprivica 12.76
Marcus Capers 12.33
Taylor Rochestie 9.89
DeAngelo Casto 9.36
Daven Harmeling 9.06
Charlie Enquist 7.47
Caleb Forrest 7.08
Abe Lodwick -0.51

Let the Bears pay the Bear tax, I pay the Homer Tax

What to say.....well, looking at the plus/minus numbers for tonight



Thompson 8
Harmeling 1
Baynes 0
Lodwick -2
Harthun -4
Rochestie -6
Casto -6
Forrest -6
Capers -7
Koprivica -8

So even when Klay's shots aren't falling, he's causing enough distraction that we play much better when he's on the court.

I guess the positive here is it could've been much worse. This game just felt like we should've been down 20 the entire time, particularly in the first half when Klay sat. I spent a good deal of the game watching Baynes on the offensive end, and noticed for last night at least he regressed to some of the laziness that plagued him last season. You have the wings running a motion offense, and while the movers are moving, the blockers are....camping out on the block demanding the ball. I don't have enough fingers to count how many times a wing crossed the court, got within a foot of Baynes and he just stood there without setting a pick because he was concentrating too hard on getting the ball.... Not to mention this was generally with 25 seconds left on the shot clock. In previous games this season, he was setting that pick before camping on the block, often getting up to the high post as well, which opened lanes up and the offense was moving. Against Baylor, we just kept passing around the wings hoping to either dump it into Baynes or taking a last-second three. Taking this into consideration it's no wonder Rochestie missed his last TEN shots.

After every awkward Casto post-move, I couldn't help but notice Caleb sitting on the bench. Forrest didn't play the entire second half. While I was very impressed with Casto's work on Acey in the post and how many shots in the paint were altered when he was down there, it still doesn't take away the fact he's becoming an offensive liability...and that's being kind. Fouling Casto at this point is no better than turning the ball over. You know you're not getting any points out of it. Now he's a freshman, I'm not expecting a ton out of him this year, but I don't think he gives you anything more than Forrest does at this point, and Forrest doesn't cower offensively when posting up someone bigger/stronger than him. Capers was also a no-show in the 2nd half as well, as Rochestie played all 40 minutes (!!!).

No Ehlo Facepalms today, as FSN ponied up the ducats to get Kez Johnson to Pullman. Nothing makes me happier than a Kez-called game. A few gems, one about Capers arms being so long he's able to scrach his knees without bending over, and later talking about the Coug defense will make you feel like Mavin Johnson: no rhythm (Any reference from The Jerk in 2008 deserves mention).

Oh well, I didn't expect this would be a Cougar victory, and after watching the first half, I was happy it was a game with a minute left. So there is something to hang our hat on. As crazy as it sounds, I actually think we match up with Gonzaga better than we did Baylor (still expecting a loss though), more on that later this week.

Nerd Science through 7 games

Well, some signs of a young team are becoming more and more evident. We're averaging nearly EIGHT fewer possessions this season than we did last, which is pretty crazy...considering we were already one of the most methodical teams in the nation.

Anyway, here is Hollinger's Win Score for each team, unadjusted for 40 minutes..... (ie: how many wins each player is worth)

Aron Baynes 10.89
Klay Thompson 10.31
Taylor Rochestie 8.29
Daven Harmeling 6.06
Nikola Koprivica 5.93
Caleb Forrest 4.50
DeAngelo Casto 3.63
Charlie Enquist 2.46
Marcus Capers 1.59
Abe Lodwick-0.10

A few things jumped out at me when looking through the stats.

1.) We suck out loud at getting to the free throw line so far this season. Only Taylor and Sloth are averaging over one trip to the stripe, and both of them cleared that BARELY. Both of them need to be shooting at least 6 free throws per game.

2.) If Daven is going to be playing as many minutes as he is, he needs to be shooting MUCH more. As an example, so far he's played 60 total minutes more than Caleb, and he's only taken 4 shots more total. Daven's biggest attribute is not his defense, it's not his floor-accumen, it's not his rebounding, it's his J. If Coach Tony is going to keep giving him 25 minutes per game, he needs to be getting off more than a shot every 10 minutes. He was shooting nearly twice as much last year on a team with more weapons and playing 5 less minutes per game. Solution: STOP STARTING DAVEN AT THE FOUR. HE'S NOT A POWER FORWARD. HE'S A TALL JUMP-SHOOTER.

(ok, breathing now...)

3.) I'm going to say this one more time about our lineups: We've played one great team where we were smacked in the mouth and happened to stay in the game because we started off the game unconscious from the outside. When we start playing the more talented teams on a regular basis (ie: Saturday), we need to shift PT to players playing in their natural positions. Small-Ball is great....when you can run....and we can't run. So please, shift Daven back to the 3, Have him come off the bench for Nic, start Caleb at the 4 and get as many minutes as you can from Casto (who will likely spend the majority of the season in foul trouble), as you'll need Caleb to spell Sloth. I am looking forward to the day where Enquist gets put on the Cowgill 4,000 calorie diet.

Starting 5 thoughts

During the WSU scrimmage today, Coach Tony mentioned the starting five for the Cougs would likely be McLovin at the 1, Klay at the 2, Daven at the 3, Caleb at the 4 and Sloth manning the middle. Other than Klay, we'd be starting 4 seniors. Now I will go ahead and mention that Tony will have forgotten more about basketball in the next five minutes than I'll ever learn in my lifetime, but I can't imagine this is going to be our starting five all season. I think a lot of this has to do with Fabian's back problems, as his hype alone is probably enough to start at the 3. I think Daven is better off in a Ricky Pierce role off the bench (sans GP feud). He can still score 20 in a game in a situational role, and I think him coming off the bench would be ideal. Although if Boeke can't play this year, it doesn't leave us with much choice.

Another player I loved coming off the bench last season was Caleb. His defensive intensity and situational rebounding was key in our run last season. I'd love to see one of the kids start, either Watson or Casto (Watson is outrebounding Castro in the pic). Both look to be able to rebound in the Pac-10 NOW, and Casto's jumper in preps was good to 18 feet (I don't believe Oklahoma exists in the union, so I'm unfamiliar with Watson's high school days). Perhaps Tony doesn't think either of them could defend a Jon Brockman or Taj Gibson yet; maybe they'll be ready by Pac-10 play. My beer gut thinks Caleb is better for the Cougars in spurts off the bench.

Anyway, my ideal starting-5 (if all are healthy) is

1 Rochestie

2 Thompson

3 Boeke

4 Watson/Casto

5 Baynes

reserves: Daven, Nik, Casto/Watson, Caleb, Capers and possibly Enquist.

I need to work on getting nicknames for everyone...